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U.S. potato exports for the July – September quarter were down significantly compared to the same period in 2019. This drop is a result of the pandemic’s continuing impact on the demand in many markets, particularly in SE Asia and Central America and the tight supplies of U.S. frozen potato products. Additionally, exports for this period in 2019 were at record levels, so the bar was set very high. Frozen exports were down 23% in volume; however, they were down only 14% in September, showing recoveries in some markets. Frozen exports to Mexico are still well above 2019 when the retaliatory tariff caused switches to Canadian and EU products. The least impacted markets are Korea, up 2%, Taiwan, down 6%, and Japan, down 12%. The biggest impacts were in China, down 62%, Indonesia, down 71%, the Philippines, down 67%, and Vietnam, down 69%. Dehydrated exports were down only 2% for the quarter and 5% for September. This reduction is more reflective of tight U.S. supplies than decreased demand. Some very positive results were recorded for Japan, up 19%, Korea, up 71%, Taiwan, up 16%, and Saudi Arabia, up 137%. Exports of fresh potatoes, including table-stock and chipping, were down 6% for the quarter but up 10% in September. The decline is largely caused by a 16% drop to Canada as the movement of raw potatoes for frozen processing was curtailed. Exports to target markets in Asia, Central America, and Mexico were either up or even with last year. Of note, the new year-round access to Japan resulted in a 306% increase, while the Philippines was up 30%, and Taiwan up 42%. Exports to Mexico held steady and were up 3% in September despite the significant negative impacts of the virus on this country.

Corn Production Down 1 Percent from October Forecast Soybean Production Down 2 Percent Cotton Production Up less than 1 Percent Corn production for grain is forecast at 14.5 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 7 percent from 2019. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 175.8 bushels per harvested acre, down 2.6 bushels from the previous forecast but up 8.3 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82.5 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up 1 percent from the previous year. Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.17 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but up 17 percent from last year. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 50.7 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.2 bushels from the previous forecast but up 3.3 bushels from 2019. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 82.3 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 10 percent from 2019. All cotton production is forecast at 17.1 million 480-pound bales, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 14 percent from 2019. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 911 pounds per harvested acre, up 2 pounds from the previous forecast and up 88 pounds from 2019. Upland cotton production is forecast at 16.5 million 480-pound bales, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 14 percent from 2019. Pima cotton production is forecast at 557,000 bales, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 19 percent from 2019. All cotton area harvested is forecast at 9.01 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 22 percent from 2019.

A beef company that fought for years to clear its name in court has broken ground on a state-of-the-art ground beef production facility in Garden City, Kan. The empirical family of companies says the new operation will supplement its existing production at its South Sioux City, Neb., location and represents an investment of $250 million. Formerly Beef Products Inc. (BPI), the company changed its name to empirical in 2019. That was after BPI settled a landmark defamation suit with the Walt Disney Co., owner of ABC News, in June of 2017 for $1.9 billion. The lawsuit was the culmination of a five-year battle by BPI after an ABC News report on ground beef. In 2012, ABC Correspondent Jim Avila reported on BPI’s lean finely textured beef (LFTB) product processed from the trimmings from cattle carcasses. "Seventy percent of the ground beef we buy at the supermarket contains something he calls pink slime," Avila said in a clip from the original reporting – using the name for the substance that former USDA scientist microbiologist Gerald Zirnstein had given it: "pink slime." While ABC News noted in its stories that the addition of “pink slime” was common and not unsafe to eat, the sudden public awareness and the unappetizing name drove BPI to close three plants and cost 700 hundred workers their jobs. Following the ABC News reports, fast-food chains severed ties with the company, and hundreds of thousands of people signed petitions to keep “pink slime" out of school lunches. In a dramatic turnaround, the empirical company – still under the same family ownership – is now thriving again. “The increased demand for empirical’s lean ground beef requires us to significantly increase our processing capacity to meet the growing needs of our customers,” Craig Letch, president of empirical foods, said in a press release. “This presents a tremendous growth opportunity for empirical and we are excited about what it means for the future of our company and the communities where we live and work.” The facility is expected to be operational in 2023 and will increase empirical’s current ground beef capacity by 50%, and will employ 250 workers in the Garden City region. A phase two expansion would double production as demand allows. To ensure a strong pipeline of qualified staff able to operate empirical’s advanced machinery, empirical is committing to an investment of up to $300,000 in a new industrial maintenance program that will be established at Garden City Community College to train the next generation of facility operators and leaders.

Following robust Independence Day meat sales, analysts expected a softening of demand from consumers. Data from the week ending July 12, however, suggests – at least for one week – consumers remain aggressive buyers. According to Anne-Marie Roerink, president 210 Analytics, “elevated everyday demand resulted  in a 21.4% increase in dollar sales” at retail last week versus a year ago, and the spiking coronavirus pandemic appears to be the reason. “As COVID-19 cases are rising across many states, several rolled back the re-opening of restaurants and businesses,” Roerink said. “In some cases, the rollback prohibits in-restaurant dining altogether, in others, dine-in capacity was more restricted — much like late March and April. The reversal on restaurant openings along with rising consumer concern over COVID-19 is likely to shift dollars back from foodservice to food retail once more.” Roerink notes non-holiday weeks had been seeing some erosion in gains of dollar sales, but last week’s numbers represent a five percentage point increase from the latest non-holiday week, June 28. “This also became the 17th week of double-digit gains since the onset of the pandemic,” she said. “While higher prices drove much of this gain, volume increased as well, at +7.7%. This was the highest volume gain during a non-holiday week since mid-April. Unit purchases in the meat department increased by 16.2 million, or 8.1%, over the week of July 12 versus last year, while volume increased 7.7%. This points to more, but smaller, packages sold.” According to analysis by IRI, a data analysis firm, dollar sales are up 35.9% during the pandemic starting March 15 through July 12. Volume sales have increased 22.5% during the same time. The increase translates into an additional $7.4 billion in meat department sales during the pandemic. That includes an additional $3.3 billion for beef, $1 billion for chicken and $794 million for pork. Beef and pork production continue strong after the initial pandemic slowdown, while chicken production is down. “Pork and beef production continue to exceed year-ago, up 12.1% and 2.1%, respectively,” said Christine McCracken, Executive Director Food & Agribusiness for Rabobank. “A 10% year-over-year increase in hog slaughter drove the sizable increase in pork, with weights contributing the balance. Heavier carcass weights more than offset a slight (-0.8%) drop in fed cattle slaughter. Chicken production moved lower again this week, as slaughter levels continue to reflect the cuts taken this spring and higher weights offering a limited offset.”  

U.S. blueberries grown in 11 states and California avocados now have access to the Chinese market as a result of the U.S.-China Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement. The U.S Department of Agriculture reported that both counties have signed protocols to allow the U.S. to export blueberries and California hass avocados into China. Other commodities approved for export include barley for processing, almond meal pellets and alfalfa hay pellets and cubes, according to a news release.

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U.S. blueberry exports to China could total $62 million annually, according to the release. USDA officials and Chinese plant health officials signed a work plan in May outlining the pest screening measures that blueberry producers must comply with to ship to China. Fresh blueberries from Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey and North Carolina may be exported to China after treatment, according to the release. Blueberries from California, Washington and Oregon can export to China if growers use a systems approach to control pests. For California hass avocado producers, the USDA said access to the Chinese market will be worth an estimated $10 million per year. Chinese and U.S. officials signed a work plan in April describing the measures California producers and shippers must comply with before they ship fruit to China. The release said China’s agriculture agency has published the import requirements and also posted an approved list of California shippers to their website. Those shippers can begin to export now, the USDA said.

China imported 6.714 MMT of soybeans during April, a 926,000 MT (12%) retreat from year-ago, according to preliminary Chinese customs data. At this point in the season, China is focused on securing South American supplies and rains delayed shipments from Brazil. China’s overall exports surprised the market by rising 3.5% from year-ago in April after dropping 6.6% in March. Exports were expected to dive 18.8%. The increase was likely aided by the shipping of medical products. U.S. Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will hold discussions next week on the Phase 1 trade agreement between the two countries. Under the agreement, the two were to meet every six months. Earlier, the president indicated the trade deal is “secondary” to its handling of the coronavirus and he will consider retaliatory measures if the country does not hold up its end of the bargain. Global food prices fell 3.4% from March to April, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nation’s food price index. The index dropped 5.7 points to 165.5 points, hitting the lowest level since January 2019. The Small Business Administration (SBA) said yesterday that it has processed $183.5 billion in loans out of the $320 billion Congress authorized for the second round of the Paycheck Protection Program. The agency said on its website that it had processed over 2.4 million applications. At a White House event attended by Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue and Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, President Trump said he has asked the Department of Justice (DOJ) to look into allegations meatpacking industry may have broke antitrust law, noting that slaughterhouses have been lowering prices paid to farmers as meat prices rose. Cattle Kill numbers have improved a bit this week, with Wednesday’s kill up 10,000 head from last week, though that is still just 69% of year-ago levels. Beef prices continue to soar with panic buying in full swing amid headlines about limits on meat purchases at major grocers and fast food joints. Meanwhile Slaughter picked up to 312,000 head on Wednesday as more shuttered plants reopened. That’s a 46,000-head increase from last week, though Wednesday’s kill was still down 38% from year-ago.  

Democratic Congressional leaders say they have reached an agreement with President Trump to spend $2 trillion on infrastructure. Congressional leaders met with the President at the White House on Tuesday. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York called the dollar amount a "very good thing". He said the President pushed off tough questions about where that money will come from. Schumer says fellow Democrats told the President the group needs his ideas on funding. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi added that the eventual agreement "will be big and it will be bold". Pelosi says they've agreed to meet again to discuss how to pay for repairing roads, bridges and other infrastructure around the country. The nation's top business groups and labor unions have supported a plan to increase the federal tax, currently 18.3 cents a gallon since it was last raised in 1993. This is a developing story.

The U.S. trade deficit jumped nearly 19% in December. That pushes the trade imbalance for all of 2018 to a decade-high of $621 billion dollars. The Commerce Department says the gap between what the U.S. sells and what it buys from other countries rose to $59.8 billion in December. That's up from $50.3 billion in November. The trade gap on goods surged to record highs last year with China ($419.2 billion), Mexico ($81.5 billion) and the European Union ($169.3 billion). December's trade imbalance worsened because U.S. imports rose 2.1%, while exports to other countries fell by 1.9%.

Citizens of Toledo value Lake Erie, and in a recent special election more than 60% of them voted to provide extra protections for the body of water. Now any citizen can sue anyone who “causes harm” to the lake’s ecosystem. Farmers should be concerned. “It’s one of those things if it wasn’t so serious it would be laughable,” says Joe Cornely, director of corporate communications at the Ohio Farm Bureau. “And any citizen of Toledo who feels that something they see on a farm might be damaging Lake Erie is empowered to sue those farmers and the City of Toledo would collect the penalties. Of course, farmers would also end up paying all the legal costs for himself or herself and the city.” This vote is 20 years in the making but rocketed to the top of Toledo’s priorities after a water safety scare in 2014. Pollution into the lake made the water unsafe to drink for a small population of the urban metropolis and since then a few active citizens made it their goal to clean up the lake. “Since then there have been a number of, I’m sure, very well intended and very passionate Toledo [citizens] who have simplified the problem to ‘stop nutrient runoff and the lake will clean up,’” Cornely says. For five years the legislature was unconvinced until this year’s landmark vote. While many states are in a battle over nutrients in watersheds, Ohio is the first to skip straight to litigation. States like Iowa and Illinois use nutrient reduction strategies to voluntarily clean up water, while Maryland has mandated nutrient reduction practices to keep the bay clean. This move in Ohio puts the power in the hands of its citizens, both the informed and uninformed of on-farm practices. However, Ohio already had laws in place regulating how farmers apply nutrients and who could apply nutrients. “We passed two pieces of legislations and are, I believe, the first in the nation to require farmers who apply nutrients to more than 50 acres to go through a state certification process,” Cornely says. “There’s training and testing involved, and you have to be certified to apply those nutrients. The second measure passed in Ohio focuses on the appropriate application in the western portion of the Lake Erie basin.” That ballot says farmers cannot apply nutrients or manure on snow-covered or frozen ground and it precludes nutrient application when significant rainfall is forecasted. This practice is required by law, but any other nutrient reduction practices used by farmers are voluntary. While the next few months could be nerve wracking for farmers in Ohio, there is light at the end of the tunnel. “Even the proponents of this are forthcoming to say this probably isn’t going to stand up in court,” Cornely says. “If I’m a farmer I can take heart in the fact that this eventually will be ruled unconstitutional. The problem is that this will take a lot of time and money.” In the immediate term farmers should be prepared for anything. “So, conceivably someone could file a lawsuit and a farmer in northwest Ohio or any of the 35 [impacted] counties in Ohio is subject to a lawsuit almost immediately,” he adds. The areas that citizens can sue farmers and businesses encompasses about five million people and 420,000 businesses.

Hope for averting a partial government shutdown dissipated Thursday afternoon as House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) told reporters President Donald Trump would not sign a stopgap funding continuing resolution already passed in the Senate. "The president informed us he will not sign the bill that came from the Senate last evening because of his legitimate concerns for border security," Ryan said after meeting with Trump. "So what we're going to do is go back to the House and work with our members." President Trump has been pushing for $5 billion for border wall construction. Democrats, who gain a majority in the House in the new year, have balked at that figure. Nine cabinet departments will run out of funding at midnight Friday if a spending bill is not passed. USDA and FDA are included on that list. See what USDA reports and functions would be impacted by a partial government shutdown. The Senate on Wednesday evening passed a continuing resolution that would have extended funding at current levels through February 8. President Trump appeared to back off demands for the border wall funding, but was met with criticism from Freedom Caucus members who urged the president to use the budget deadline to fight for border security, prompting Trump to address the issue on Twitter on Thursday. Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump The Democrats, who know Steel Slats (Wall) are necessary for Border Security, are putting politics over Country. What they are just beginning to realize is that I will not sign any of their legislation, including infrastructure, unless it has perfect Border Security. U.S.A. WINS! This is a developing story.