Livestock

The toll African swine fever (ASF) is taking on pork production worldwide is alarming, to say the least. ASF continues to spread in China, though sources say we are only hearing about 10% of the cases that are occurring. Reports of Chinese hog producers avoiding blockades of affected areas to sell diseased hogs in places where prices are doubling the average prices in the U.S. makes my stomach turn. At times, it feels like a no-win situation. It's easy to get emotional and believe what you want to believe. But this is where science comes in, and can help us make more sense of a not so-black-and white situation. Recently, a news release came out about a new vaccine to be licensed for ASF. Although I'm optimistic progress is taking place, it's important to note it is still early in the process. The quest for an ASF vaccine has been going on for a good 50 years. It's no easy feat, because ASF is the largest virus known to man, says Liz Wagstrom, chief veterinarian at the National Pork Producers Council. To put it in perspective, a typical virus might have 10 to 12 proteins. ASF has over 150 proteins. Because of its size, it's difficult to discover which, if any, of those proteins has the antibody that would protect against clinical disease. According to Wagstrom, a vaccine for ASF is still several years away from being available to pork producers. Some U.S. sources say 10 years, while a European report says the vaccine is still 20 years out. If a company does receive the license to this ASF vaccine technology created by USDA at the Plum Island Animal Disease Center, they still have many hurdles to overcome before it could become a commercialized product, including getting the vaccine to grow in large enough quantities to become commercially effective. To date, the vaccine has shown some protection against the Georgia strain of ASF, Wagstrom says. However, it has only been used on a limited number of animals and produced in small quantities. She adds the cells that the vaccine has been grown in at the Plum Island Animal Disease Center are not likely to be the cells used to grow larger volumes of the vaccine commercially. In addition, because this is a foreign animal disease, it's uncertain whether the government would want to control the usage of the vaccine. Regardless, a good surveillance program will be needed to differentiate vaccinated pigs from pigs that have gotten sick and might be carriers of the virus, Wagstrom says. I'm hopeful this vaccine will come to be. In the meantime, I'm grateful for the wise, responsive leaders of our industry taking action and working together to keep this deadly virus out.

China continues to deal with an outbreak of African swine fever. Two new cases of A.S.F. have been reported in Yunnan Province in Southwest China. That's the first cases of the disease in that key pork consuming part of the country. So far, the world's largest pork producer has culled 200,000 due to the outbreak. That number represents only a small part of the 700,000 million pigs processed every year for food consumption.

Mexico is the largest volume destination for U.S. red meat exports, and it is critically important to keep product moving without delays at the border. To help ensure that this process operates as smoothly as possible, the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) participates in educational seminars designed to educate inspectors, customs agents, brokers and others involved in the importation of U.S. meat into Mexico. USMEF technical services manager Cheyenne McEndaffer discusses the objectives behind a recent seminar hosted by COMECARNE (the Mexican Meat Council), which included an opening presentation by Dr. Alejandra Valdez, a veterinarian who leads USMEF-Mexico's technical services department. The seminar also included presentations by the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council (USAPEEC), SENASICA (Mexico's food inspection agency) and Sigma Alimentos, a major Mexican food processor and distributor. McEndaffer explains the importance of achieving consistent enforcement of Mexico's import regulations, which can be especially difficult due to high turnover among inspectors and customs agents. McEndaffer also notes that the feedback gathered at these seminars is helpful to USMEF member companies that export to Mexico, so exporter training sessions are being planned in which this information will be shared and discussed.

Another monthly record was set for feedlot inventory after the fifth straight month of record high Cattle on Feed numbers with 11.4 million head reported on Oct. 1. The feedlot inventory for the start of October was up 5.2% since the same time in 2017, according to the monthly USDA report. The total inventory of 11.4 million was the highest number for the report in October after starting back in 1996. The monthly inventory also saw an increase versus September’s report with 275,000 more cattle on feed this month. The feedlot inventory includes 7.09 million steers, an increase of 2.29% from 2017. Heifers saw a large increase of 11% with a total of 4.3 million heifers in feedlots on Oct. 1. Feedlot inventories increased in every major state except South Dakota, which dropped by 2.3% from last year. The largest percentage increase was for California at 20.9% and closely followed by Arizona at 19%. The next largest increase was in Washington with a 10% climb. States with the largest increases per head include Nebraska with 140,000 more cattle since last year and Kansas with 120,000 additional cattle. The top five cattle feedlot inventory states saw no change in their order and are as follows: Texas 2,660,000 head Nebraska 2,430,000 head Kansas 2,370,000 head Colorado 980,000 head Iowa 690,000 head September feedlot placements took a dive with 99,000 fewer cattle entering yards, resulting in a 4.6% drop since the same time in 2017. The most popular class of cattle to be placed were 800-899 lb. followed by calves weighing 700-799 lb. and calves lighter than 600 lb. Two months ago 800-899 lb. class cattle were the third most popular placed cattle, but the heavier class of cattle has continued to stay at the top of placements. The placements went as follows for September with no change in the order of popularity: 800-899 lb. = 466,000 head 700-799 lb. = 430,000 head Less than 600 lb. = 425,000 head 600-699 lb. = 330,000 head 900-999 lb. = 280,000 head 1,000 lb. and greater = 120,000 head Fed cattle marketing for September were down 3.72% since last year with 1.72 million head going through packers.

JBS Tolleson, Inc., a division of JBS SA, is recalling 6.5 million pounds of “various raw, non-intact beef products” due to an outbreak of salmonella, USDA-Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) said Thursday. The products were package on various dates from July 26, 2018, to Sept. 7, 2018. The full list of products being recalled are found via PDF or XLSX. The products subject to recall bear establishment number “EST. 267” inside the USDA mark of inspection. These items were shipped to retail locations and institutions nationwide. On Sept. 5, 2018, FSIS was notified of an investigation of Salmonella Newport illnesses with reported consumption of several different FSIS-regulated products by case-patients. The first store receipt potentially linking the purchase of FSIS-regulated product to a case-patient was received on Sept. 19, 2018; FSIS was then able to begin traceback of ground beef products. To date, eight case-patients have provided receipts or shopper card numbers, which have enabled product traceback investigations. FSIS, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and state public health and agriculture partners have now determined that raw ground beef was the probable source of the reported illnesses. Traceback has identified JBS as the common supplier of the ground beef products. The epidemiological investigation has identified 57 case-patients from 16 states with illness onset dates ranging from Aug. 5 to Sept. 6, 2018. FSIS will continue to work with public health partners and will provide updated information should it become available. FSIS is concerned that some product may be frozen and in consumers’ freezers. Consumers who have purchased these products are urged not to consume them. These products should be thrown away or returned to the place of purchase.

JBS Tolleson, Inc., a division of JBS SA, is recalling 6.5 million pounds of “various raw, non-intact beef products” due to an outbreak of salmonella, USDA-Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) said Thursday. The products were package on various dates from July 26, 2018, to Sept. 7, 2018. The full list of products being recalled are found via PDF or XLSX. The products subject to recall bear establishment number “EST. 267” inside the USDA mark of inspection. These items were shipped to retail locations and institutions nationwide. On Sept. 5, 2018, FSIS was notified of an investigation of Salmonella Newport illnesses with reported consumption of several different FSIS-regulated products by case-patients. The first store receipt potentially linking the purchase of FSIS-regulated product to a case-patient was received on Sept. 19, 2018; FSIS was then able to begin traceback of ground beef products. To date, eight case-patients have provided receipts or shopper card numbers, which have enabled product traceback investigations. FSIS, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and state public health and agriculture partners have now determined that raw ground beef was the probable source of the reported illnesses. Traceback has identified JBS as the common supplier of the ground beef products. The epidemiological investigation has identified 57 case-patients from 16 states with illness onset dates ranging from Aug. 5 to Sept. 6, 2018. FSIS will continue to work with public health partners and will provide updated information should it become available. FSIS is concerned that some product may be frozen and in consumers’ freezers. Consumers who have purchased these products are urged not to consume them. These products should be thrown away or returned to the place of purchase.

With 21 reported cases of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China’s most hog-dense areas, the conversation is not about if, but rather when the next case will pop up. On AgriTalk, Chip Flory talked with Patrick Webb, director of swine health programs for the National Pork Board, about China’s biosecurity challenges and the U.S. response plan if an ASF outbreak occurs. “When you take one of the most devastating swine diseases out there and put it in the country with the most pigs in the world, it's a recipe for disaster,” Webb said. He estimates China produces 500 to 700 million pigs a year, with 50% of those pigs coming from commercial operations. That leaves a very large number of pigs coming from backyard or smallholdings. “In backyard operations and smallholdings, the level of biosecurity is probably not where it ought to be,” Webb said. “That becomes a real challenge for the regulatory officials in China. The sheer number of producers they have to interact with, compared to the United States, makes this extremely difficult to get under control.” Avenues For ASF To Enter The U.S. Webb affirms that ASF will not naturally invade the U.S. “We talk about these viruses – ASF, FMD [foot and mouth], CSF [classical swine fever] – and we almost give them a mythical ability to appear,” he says. “It would have to be brought in, it's not just going to spontaneously pop up.” However, there are many potential avenues for the disease to enter the U.S., Flory said. Although no one wants to talk about it, people could bring the virus to the U.S. deliberately. In other situations, a casual traveler could bring back meat contaminated with the virus or it could enter through illegal importation of contaminated meat products. Webb added we can always elevate our level of awareness and preparedness. For example, recent research by Scott Dee, DVM, and others shows how viruses survived transportation in different feed ingredients within an experimental model. Read more about Scott Dee in the October issue of Farm Journal’s PORK. “Traditionally, the risk was from the virus being in meat and meat products,” Webb said. “Now we have to assess this new risk and look at the route that feed inputs potentially could play.” A Response Plan For ASF Webb encourages people to check out the USDA’s website to learn more about what the USDA will do in the face of an outbreak. Each state has a response plan as well that is designed to coordinate with USDA’s plan, Webb said. “ASF is tricky, unlike Foot and Mouth Disease and Classical Swine Fever, where there are vaccines, ASF doesn't have a vaccine,” Webb said. “This is a disease where you have to use disease control measures, stop movements, quarantine, and implement high levels of biosecurity to control it. You don't have another tool in your toolbox.” At the state level, the first thing the state will do is set up a disease control area, Webb said. The state vet is going to have to find all of those holdings that have pigs in addition to determining where pigs could pass through, like a packing plant, buying station or sale barn. The second thing need to do is communicate. They will need to share the new rules, explain what can and can’t happen, help people understand what to look for, and most importantly, inform people how to report the disease if they think they have it. If ASF Breaks In The U.S. “The minute that we have ASF, our status in the country of being ASF-free goes away,” Webb said. “States would have to start developing a status – and that means surveillance testing in the area.” To stop movement of the disease, the first step would be euthanasia, followed by disposal, and then cleaning and disinfection at the site of infection. Webb said the ASF strain in Russia and the eastern and western US, and most likely the one in China, is pretty virulent and will likely cause death in infected animals. So, what about exports? “We would see in that first year, due to the fact that we will be shut out of our export markets, an $8 billion loss in revenue to the pork industry, $4 billion to corn, and $1.5 billion to soybeans.” Webb said. Listen to the full audio report to hear more discussion about ASF and China.

After months of raising eyebrows and lowering grain prices amid an escalating trade war with a host of global trade partners, President Donald Trump has racked up a number of trade wins in recent days, finalizing deals with Canada, Mexico and South Korea as well as opening trade talks with the European Union and Japan. Still, there will be some lingering trade pain for U.S. agriculture according to the former chief ag negotiator for the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR.) “More concerning to me are changes in investment and production decisions that may flow from the current trade tensions with China,” said Darci Vetter, formerly the chief ag negotiator at USTR and now general manager of public affairs at Edelman. “So Brazil has every incentive now to add soybean acres knowing that their beans are now trading at a premium into China because ours are hit with tariffs.” Vetter made the comments Wednesday at a conference exploring the future of food sponsored by ING Bank. She noted that Chinese tariffs are causing some U.S. companies to rethink their planned investments in the U.S. “We’ve seen companies like the Maschhoffs, the largest hog producer in the United States, say that their investment dollars will probably go to build facilities in Eastern Europe or Latin America because they know that they’ll be able to export their product to more places if they build there,” Vetter explained. “So even if those trade tensions with China are to end tomorrow, what we know is that we’ll now be competing with more facilities in other countries and more acres in countries like Brazil.” According to Vetter, the Maschhoffs had $30 million targeted for facility investment in the U.S. that will now be shifted to other countries in order to avoid tariff challenges. Vetter also noted that U.S. companies have enjoyed a trade advantage because of regulatory stability, but that advantage is dissipating. “In my experience as a negotiator, a lot of foreign companies would say to me that doing business with the U.S. and U.S. based companies had value because of the consistency of U.S. policy and their adherence to contracts, the fact that we didn’t typically change our tariffs at the border,” Vetter explained. “There was a certain certainty that comes with doing business with the United States. There’s no longer sort of that premium of certainty that goes with doing business with a U.S. company.” Higher value markets like wine, fruit, and nuts will likely face the longest impact from the trade disruption according to Vetter who meanwhile predicted a quicker recovery for soybeans. “I think soybeans will flow to the market that is most efficient,” She said. “I think those (commodity) markets could return to similar patterns more quickly.”