Grains

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2019 is estimated at 91.7 million acres, up 3 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acres are up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimating States. Area harvested for grain, at 83.6 million acres, is up 2 percent from last year. Soybean planted area for 2019 is estimated at 80.0 million acres, down 10 percent from last year. This represents the lowest soybean planted acreage in the United States since 2013. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down in all 29 estimating States. All wheat planted area for 2019 is estimated at 45.6 million acres, down 5 percent from 2018. This represents the lowest all wheat planted area on record since records began in 1919. The 2019 winter wheat planted area, at 31.8 million acres, is down 2 percent from last year but up 1 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 22.7 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 5.54 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.55 million acres are White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2019 is estimated at 12.4 million acres, down 6 percent from 2018. Of this total, about 12.0 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2019 is estimated at 1.40 million acres, down 32 percent from the previous year. All cotton planted area for 2019 is estimated at 13.7 million acres, 3 percent below last year. Upland area is estimated at 13.4 million acres, down 3 percent from 2018. American Pima area is estimated at 275,000 acres, up 10 percent from 2018.

Farmers across the country have battled Mother Nature for months, fighting to get corn and soybean crops planted. In this week’s USDA Crop Progress report, the agency noted that 96% of the nation’s corn and 85% of the nation’s soybeans are planted. But as emergence numbers and conditions rating imply, getting the crop planted is just the start of the battle. As of June 23, just 89% of the corn and 71% of the country’s soybeans were emerged. While those numbers are up from 79% and 55% last week, they are vastly behind their historical averages of 99% and 91% respectively. Several states are showing critically slow emergence, including Ohio and Michigan. Typically at this time 99% of Ohio’s corn has emerged. According to USDA just 66% of the state’s corn is out of the ground. The situation is similar for soybeans, which are just 45% emerged compared to their historical average of 92%. In Michigan the situation is much the same. Corn there should be 98% emerged and it’s 62% emerged. Soybeans should be 93% emerged, but only sit at 48% emerged. For the crops that have emerged, weather continues to be a challenge. USDA Monday reported corn conditions are 59% good-to-excellent, consistent with the average trade guess, according to Reuters. However, soybeans are just 54% good-to-excellent, falling 5 percentage points behind the average trade guess for this week. According to Karen Braun of Reuters, this is lowest initial rating for soybeans since 1992, when it was 51% good-to-excellent. Mother Nature is challenging wheat farmers too. According to the report, harvest crews did make some progress on winter wheat last week, moving the needle from 8% harvest to 15%. However, this is well behind the five-year-average of 34% harvested.

As of June 16, USDA estimates 92% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted. That compares to a five-year average for mid-June of 100% planted. Today’s planting pace matches the pre-report trade estimate. Ohio farmers have planted 68% of the state’s crop, which is the lowest percent planted of the top 18 corn-producing states. South Dakota is at 78% planted, while Michigan and Indiana are at 84% planted. Illinois is now 88% planted. The five-year average for each of these states by mid-June is 100% complete. With 92% planted, that means 7.2 million acres of corn remain unplanted, per USDA current acreage estimate. As of June 11, USDA shaved off 3 million corn acres, making the 2019 estimate 89.8 million due to unprecedented planting delays through June and likely prevent plant claims. In addition, USDA lowered the national average corn yield to 166 bu./acre—a 10 bu. per acre drop from its original estimate. Nearly 80% of the U.S. corn crop has emerged. By this time normally 97% of the crop has emerged. As far as condition, 7% of the corn crop is rated excellent, 52% is rated good, 31% rated fair, 8% rated poor and 2% rated very poor. For soybeans, 77% of the U.S. crop has been planted—a 17 percentage point jump from June 9. This compares to a five-year average of 93% planted. The pre-report average trade guess for soybean planting progress was 79% complete. Although adverse weather has significantly slowed soybean planting progress this year, USDA left soybean acres and production forecasts unchanged. For this year, USDA is estimating 84.6 million soybean acres and a national average yield of 49.5 bu./acre. That means 19.5 million acres of soybeans remain unplanted. Of the major soybean-growing states, Ohio is the furthest behind with only 46% of the state’s soybeans planted. Other states that are significantly behind average in planting are Michigan at 53%, Missouri at 57%, Indiana at 64%, Illinois at 70% and South Dakota at 70%. Just over half—55%—of the U.S. soybean crop has emerged, which compares to a five-year average of 84% by mid-June.

WHEAT: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production. Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased 2018/19 exports. Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million with an increase to Hard Red Winter more than offsetting decreases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter. Total wheat production is now forecast at 1,903 million bushels, up 5.8 million bushels from the May forecast. Exports for 2019/20 are unchanged at 900 million bushels but feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 140 million on reduced projected corn supplies. Ending stocks are lowered 69 million bushels to 1,072 million, and the season-average farm price is raised $0.40 per bushel to $5.10. The price increase reflects sharply higher wheat futures prices and reduced 2019/20 corn supplies. World 2019/20 wheat supplies are raised 4.9 million tons on a 1.6-million-ton increase in beginning stocks and a 3.3-million-ton increase in global production. India’s wheat crop is raised 1.2 million tons on updated government data. Production in Russia and Ukraine are each raised 1.0 million tons reflecting favorable weather to date. Projected 2019/20 global trade is expanded 0.8 million tons with a 1.0-million-ton increase for Russia and a 0.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine, both due to larger crops. Russian exports are now projected at 37.0 million tons and Ukraine exports are projected at a record 19.5 million. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton decrease for EU exports with greater competition from Black Sea origins. Projected 2019/20 world consumption is raised 3.6 million tons on both higher food and feed and residual use. With supplies rising more than use, ending stocks are projected up 1.3 million tons to a record 294.3 million. COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for increased beginning stocks and imports, sharply lower production, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Beginning stocks are up reflecting a 100-million-bushel decline in projected exports for 2018/19 to 2.2 billion bushels, based on current outstanding sales and reduced U.S. price competitiveness. Corn production for 2019/20 is forecast to decline 1.4 billion bushels to 13.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2015/16. Unprecedented planting delays observed through early June are expected to prevent some plantings and reduce yield prospects. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. With sharply lower supplies, use is projected to decline 425 million bushels to 14.3 billion, based on reductions to feed and residual use and exports. With supplies falling more than use, ending stocks are projected to decline 810 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. The season-average farm price is raised 50 cents to $3.80 per bushel. This month’s 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, increased trade and lower stocks relative to last month. Argentina corn production is raised on increased area with higher prices. Canada corn production is lowered on reductions to both area and yield with planting delays in Ontario. Russia corn production is higher based on government data indicating larger-than-expected planted area. Barley production is lowered for the EU reflecting a reduction for Spain. For 2018/19, Brazil corn production is raised based on the latest government statistics. Major global trade changes for 2019/20 include larger forecast corn exports for Argentina and Russia, with a partly offsetting reduction for Zambia. For 2018/19, exports are raised for Brazil and Argentina for the local marketing year beginning in March 2019 based on higher-than-expected shipments during May. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered from last month mostly reflecting reductions for Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and the EU. RICE: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use and exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected U.S. all rice production is lowered 20.1 million cwt or 9 percent to 198.1 million with all of the decrease in long-grain, primarily on a reduction in planted area. The excessive spring precipitation in the Delta is expected to result in lower rice area in this region compared to the NASS Prospective Plantings intended acreage, issued March 29. Partially offsetting the smaller production are higher projected imports, which are raised by 1.2 million cwt to a record large 29.2 million with increases for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain. All rice projected domestic and residual use is lowered 7.0 million cwt to 133.0 million, mainly the result of reduced long-grain supplies. Projected all rice exports are reduced 1.0 million cwt to 100.0 million. The reduction in long-grain exports on higher projected prices is partially offset by increased medium- and short-grain exports as a portion of outstanding sales from the 2018/19 market year are expected to be shifted to 2019/20. Projected 2019/20 all rice ending stocks are lowered 7.2 million cwt to 51.6 million with long-grain accounting for all of the reduction. The projected 2019/20 all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised by $0.50 per cwt to $11.70 with increases in the projected SAFPs of all rice classes this month. Global 2019/20 rice supplies are decreased by 0.5 million tons to 667.8 million as higher carryin stocks are more than offset by lower production. Global production is down as reductions for the United States, North Korea, and Thailand are not completely offset by higher projected production for Madagascar, Egypt, and the EU. World 2019/20 consumption is lowered fractionally to 496.0 million tons on reduced expected use in China, North Korea, and the United States more than offsetting higher use in Madagascar, Bangladesh, Burma, and Egypt. Global 2019/20 trade is lowered 0.4 million tons to 47.2 million as reduced exports by India, Burma, and the United States are not completely offset by higher exports by China. Projected world ending stocks are adjusted lower this month to 171.9 million tons but remain record large. OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised reflecting a 75-million-bushel reduction in projected exports for 2018/19 based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and a lower import forecast for China. Although adverse weather has significantly slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production forecasts are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season. With soybean use unchanged, 2019/20 ending stocks are projected at 1,045 million bushels, down 25 million from the revised 2018/19 projection. Other changes for 2018/19 include increased soybean meal imports and exports, reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, and higher soybean oil ending stocks. The 2019/20 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $8.25 per bushel, up 15 cents reflecting the impact of higher corn prices. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 per short ton, up 5 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound. The 2019/20 global soybean supply and use projections include lower production and stocks compared to last month. Global production is down 0.3 million tons to 355.4 million due to lower crops for Ukraine and Zambia. The 2019/20 soybean ending stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons mainly reflecting lower carryin due to revisions to 2018/19 balance sheets. Beginning stocks for 2019/20 are reduced for Argentina and China offsetting higher stocks for the United States. For Argentina, stocks are lowered on a 1.5-million-ton increase to exports to 7.8 million for 2018/19 based on the recent pace of shipments. Beginning stocks are lowered for China due to a 1-million-ton decrease to imports to 85 million for 2018/19. SUGAR: U.S. sugarbeet production for 2019/20 is projected at 33.916 million tons, up 1 percent from last month. Overall planting progress in the United States advanced beyond the pace indicated last month to move the yield forecast to 30.8 tons/acre, up from 30.5. Based on average levels of beet pile shrink and slicing recovery, beet sugar production from this crop is projected at 4.992 million short tons, raw value (STRV) with production occurring in August and September at 511,111. This results in fiscal 2018/19 beet sugar production at 4.920 million STRV, a gain of 9,509 STRV. This increase is largely offset by lower 2018/19 Florida cane sugar production reported by processors. High-tier tariff imports for 2018/19 are increased by 20,000 STRV to 90,000 based on the pace of entries to date. These supply changes result in ending stocks for 2018/19 residually increasing to 1.526 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.40 percent, up marginally over last month. Beet sugar production for 2019/20 is projected at 5.154 million STRV based on the larger sugarbeet crop. This increase is partially offset by lower cane sugar production in Texas due to weather-related area reductions for the 2019/20 crop as reported by the processor. With no changes to imports or use, the combination of higher beginning stocks of 20,469 STRV and a net production increase of 23,457 STRV implies ending stocks of 1.528 million and a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.37 percent. Mexico sugar production for 2018/19 is estimated at 6.400 million metric tons (MT) based on CONADESUCA-estimated area of 796,770 hectares (ha) and USDA estimates of yield at 71.08 MT/ha and sucrose recovery of 11.30 percent. Mexico sugar production for 2019/20 is projected at 6.183 million MT assuming the same area as in 2018/19 and 5-year averages of sugarcane yield and sucrose recovery. With no other changes, the changes to production result in exports to non-U.S. destinations of 1.386 million MT in 2018/19 and 263,100 MT in 2019/20, based on CONADESUCA targets for ending stocks.

When USDA released the Crop Progress Report for the week ending May 26, on Tuesday, May 28, there was a collective feeling of disbelief. Not only did the trade underestimate Mother Nature’s ability to keep planters parked, but at just 58% planted this is the slowest corn planting in history. Markets responded with limit up movement, with some contracts even setting new contract highs. The market is begging farmers to take their time and get their crops planted, according to Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and Farm Journal economist, “The market is trying to convince farmers that prevent plant is a bad idea,” says Flory, who called Tuesday’s report “shocking.” “I’ll admit, I saw that 58% number and I was sick to my stomach. Good God.” Farmers in Illinois are just 35% planted, in Indiana and Ohio just 22% of the crop is planted and in South Dakota and Michigan, 25% and 30% of the corn is planted, respectively. With soil moisture conditions at or above 50% surplus for much of the Corn Belt and more rain on the way, it will be tough for farmers to make much progress this week. “The weather pattern has shifted where the heavier amounts [of rain] are further to the West now than what they were,” Flory says. “But the soils in the east are so saturated that even if they get an inch of rain a week, it will keep them out of the field.” While prevent plant insurance final planting dates have arrived for some farmers, others are nearing. Farmers in Illinois have until June 5 to keep full crop insurance coverage. But, Illinois farmers are just 35% planted compared to the five-year average of 95%. And if the market continues to move higher, some farmers may lose the itch to file a prevent plant claim and give their ground time to dry out. “You add another 25-35 cents to this corn price this week it just widens the window of an acceptable planting date,” Flory says. While the market pushes farmers to be patient, other non-market factors are influencing farmer decisions as well. Last week, USDA announced the Market Facilitation Program for 2019, intended to help mitigate price pain caused by the ongoing trade war. Those payments will be paid on a per acre basis in which prevent plant acres will not be eligible and Flory says they’re another factor in the mix. “With a $50 MFP payment I can afford to lose 13 bushels [by planting later],” he says. “This is all kinds of jumbled.” At the moment, the market and most analysts are focused on planting progress, but as the weeks march on emergence and crop conditions will become driving indicators. The first conditions ratings report should push markets higher again, according to Flory. “If it doesn’t, something is wrong,” he says. USDA won’t publish a conditions ratings report until 50% of the corn is emerged. This week’s report indicates just 32% of the crop is emerged. But it’s expected much of the corn will be rated poor in the first report. “This year the growing degree day accumulation, which helps determine how quickly it’s going to germinate, it’s been so slow and crappy that it’s got to be taking a bite out of stands,” he says. Bottom line: a lot of planted corn has been sitting in cold wet soil for a long time.