Ethanol

Brazil Could Eliminate U.S. Ethanol Tariff

Brazil has a 20 percent tariff on U.S. ethanol, and that could soon be lifted as gasoline prices have increased in recent months. In 2017, Brazil placed the import duty on U.S. ethanol when the U.S. banned Brazilian beef imports after discovering unsanitary conditions in some slaughterhouses. “There is, on the part of the U.S., a big demand to withdraw this ethanol tariff, and we also have this problem with beef—obviously one thing influences and contaminates the other,” said Agriculture Minister Blairo Maggi. Stakeholders in U.S. ethanol say eliminating the Brazilian tariff is a major target. “U.S. ethanol is extremely competitive on the world market,” said Tom Sleight, president of the U.S. Grains Council (USGC). “Cheapest source of octane in the world, [and] that creates some pressures, typically in places like Brazil which was our number one market.” This news brought about extended losses to sugar futures, and is raising concerns of sugar pressuring the market. At this time, there is no timeline for changes.
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Here Is What Farmers Say About Keeping NAFTA

Since his campaign days, President Donald Trump has voiced little support for keeping the United States involved in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Ag trade groups, companies and associations have varying perspectives and positions on the topic as well. Last week, U.S. farmers, dairymen and livestock producers weighed in to share their points of view, via a Farm Journal Pulse survey. The survey question asked was, “Do you think the U.S. should withdraw from NAFTA?” Of the 839 responses, 30% said yes, to eliminate it either because they believe the economy is better off without the trade agreement, or because they believe the U.S. can negotiate better deals with Canada and Mexico one-on-one. Forty-three percent of respondents said to keep NAFTA, because it is crucial for farmers and for maintaining a low-cost food supply. Slightly more than one-fourth of Pulse participants, 26%, said they aren’t sure whether keeping or eliminating NAFTA is in the United States’ best interest. The map below depicts the 839 responses, which are provided anonymously, to the question. The dots are color-coded based on the answer provided. Farm Journal partners with Commodity Update, the leading provider of agricultural information to mobile phones, to implement the Pulse survey, which is done twice per month.
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Tax Reform Losers From Biofuels to Coal to Get Second Chance

Energy lobbyists, who failed to get a range of expired breaks for biofuels to coal-fired power plants into the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul bill making its way through Congress, may get a second chance before the end of the year. The Senate plans to act on a slate of expired tax credits before month’s end, according to John Thune, the Senate’s No. 3 ranking Republican who serves on the Finance Committee. Lobbyists have been told the package of "tax extenders" -- renewing tens of billions of dollars in expired tax incentives -- could be hitched to must-pass government funding legislation expected in coming weeks. "I would say the discussion of the extenders package is a golden opportunity," said Scott Segal, a Bracewell LLP lobbyist seeking tax credits for small wind projects, geothermal heat pumps, and fuel cells. Representatives of the House and Senate tax writing committees didn’t respond to requests seeking comment on the timing. In addition to the expiring benefits, the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, which represents companies such as American Electric Power Co. and Peabody Energy Corp., is seeking a new tax credit for existing coal-fired power plants that would total $65 billion over 10 years. "We think we have a good case to make," said Paul Bailey, the group’s president. "We’ve had a lot of retirements and there is a lot of concern about reliability and grid resilience so we think that is a good reason to have a tax credit that would prevent some coal retirements." The proposal, which would allow nearly every U.S. coal plant to qualify, comes as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is also moving forward with a rule to help coal plants that would apply to about 40,000 megawatts of coal out of a fleet of about 260,000 megawatts, Bailey said. Meanwhile, the nuclear industry, which is retiring plants in the face of competition from electricity sources such as cheap natural gas and renewable power, is also seeking a tax credit, said David Brown, senior vice president of federal affairs for Exelon Corp., the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. The 30 percent investment tax credit, which as envisioned would phase down over time and then become a 10 percent permanent tax credit, is estimated to cost $5 billion, Brown said. Nuclear Credits While the FERC proposal would also help nuclear plants, Brown said it wouldn’t become effective soon enough to help the nuclear fleet. The tax credit, he said, would be "a bridge until the markets can appropriately value the attributes that nuclear can bring to the table." A separate measure extending a production tax credit for nuclear power could also find a home in the Senate’s tax extenders bill. It’s been championed by Republican Senator Johnny Isakson, and could benefit Southern Co., which is building new nuclear reactors in his home state of Georgia. Other tax credits sought for the package include the reinstatement and multiyear extension of a $1.01 a gallon tax credit for the production of cellulosic ethanol -- which, unlike traditional corn ethanol, is made from garbage, algae and corn stover -- and a $1 per gallon credit for biodiesel. Both of which have been championed by Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley. The legislation could also provide an opportunity to tweak language in the Senate’s tax reform bill that would stifle the tax equity market used as a key source of financing for the renewable energy industry and has caused the stock price of companies such as First Solar Inc and SunPower Corp. to slump. Grassley, who serves on the Finance Committee, sought to modify those provisions in the Senate bill so that tax equity from credits for wind and solar would be protected. Oil companies, ethanol producers, labor unions and environmental groups are also working to persuade lawmakers to renew -- and expand -- a tax credit that rewards businesses for every ton of carbon dioxide they capture. Under current policy, the credit for that captured gas -- worth $10 or $20 per ton, depending on how it is stored -- runs out once 75 million tons worth of credits are used. Supporters of that 45Q tax credit, as it is known, argue it helps encourage companies to clean up emissions from ethanol plants, refineries and power plants, while ensuring the oil industry has enough carbon dioxide to pump underground and boost crude extraction. Other credits sought for the extenders bill include the ones for small wind projects, geothermal heat pumps, fuel cells and other energy sources, known as "orphans" because they were left out of 2015 omnibus spending legislation that extended credits for wind and solar. "Most observers thought this issue was going to be taken care of a long time ago and should have been part of the 2015 compromise," said Segal, the Bracewell lobbyist.
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Biodiesel Industry: "This EPA is not Interested in Our Growth"

Reactions across agriculture were mixed to the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) blending targets for renewable fuels for 2018 and 2019, setting the total renewable fuel volume at 19.29 billion gallons. The 15 billion gallon target for convention biofuel, including corn-based ethanol, won mild praise from Bob Dinneen, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association. "We're generally pleased, we think that the EPA has kept the RFS (Renewable Fuels Standard) largely on track," Dineen told AgriTalk Radio host Mike Adams. But he said EPA could have been more robust with their advanced biofuels numbers." He said the industry should get more credit for cellulosic production added to conventional corn ethanol plants and for corn oil use in biodiesel. On the biodiesel side of the ledger, there was disappointment in the flat 2.1 billion gallon target. "This is a two to four year signal that this EPA is not interested in our growth," Doug Whitehead, chief operating officer of the National Biodiesel Board said on AgriTalk. "You know, 2.3 or 2.4 (billion gallon target) would have launched steel into the ground and would have helped farmers decide what their plant crop rotation would have been for next year. I'm thankful for not getting a cut, but this is very disappointing." Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) who has been at the center of the fight over the RFS target levels said in a statement,"The EPA's announced renewable volume obligations fall short of the full potential of the U.S. biofuels industry. That is disappointing, particularly the lack of increase for biodiesel levels and the cut in cellulosic level requirements. Increases in the volume requirements are justified and would be good public policy. Congress intended for the RFS to drive growth in biofuels across all categories. Contrary to that goal, this final rule does little to encourage investment and growth in advanced biofuels."
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Electricity Will Shape Future Farms

Advances in electricity technology seldom focus on agriculture. This is to be expected for our industry that contributes less than 1% of GDP. The actual impact on us of these seemingly unrelated developments, however, could be considerable. For example, large farm buildings cry out to be covered in photo-voltaic (PV) cells, which continue to plummet in price. At the same time, sheds offer room for large batteries to store energy. With or without sellback rules, we could be paying our electricity supplier less. Coupled with a serious generator, farms could lead grid exiting. Throw in ever more efficient electrical devices, such as LEDs, and the already flat electrical consumption curve will turn down. Despite the hype, the energy model marketed by Tesla is not all science fiction. Their enormous battery factory exists and is pumping out thousands of lithium-ion units this year. The greatest threat to the success of this venture is cheaper, better batteries from China. As prices for electric vehicles (EV) drop and battery range increases, the entire sun-to-road scheme is not just feasible but dominating. Meanwhile, John Deere rolled out an electric tractor to deserved skepticism. Like trucks, farm equipment poses adoption barriers orders of magnitude greater. Viewed with farmer myopia, the consequences of EVs are easily discounted. Power Players. The impact will be felt not in how farmers use this technology but in the actions of the rest of the global economy. For example, while farmers are unlikely to rush to buy electric vehicles, what happens when cars like the Tesla S make up even 10% of vehicle sales? Few Americans are faced with our distance and power needs. Commuters could be bypassing gas pumps more rapidly than we imagine. Switching from a car with about 10,000 moving parts to one with 150 means far less maintenance and repair. Electric vehicles are also more adaptable to autonomous operation, regardless of that timeline. The automobile infrastructure—including dealers, repair shops, gas stations, etc.—will all be slimmed down. Those of us who still need diesel power and maintenance could see fewer and more expensive sources. On the bright side, low demand for fuel could drop those prices. Which leads to another side-effect of solar-to-road: ethanol demand. How many Bolts would it take to make gasoline consumption curve down? The short answer: a lot. The better question is how fast we could get there. While currently only 0.1% of auto sales, the present growth rate of 60% per year suggests the upcoming decade of the ’20s will resolve forecast disputes. Trump energy policy reversals make it unlikely the U.S. will lead this change. In fact, watch China: It will shape the future of cars, not the U.S. Additionally, hardly a week passes without some government announcing a drop-dead date in internal combustion engine vehicles. Myriad Drivers. This forecast is accelerating on continuing declines in PV, battery and car costs, all of which seem to be bets investors are taking. Nor will domestic politics control this transition. Even the loss of alternative energy subsidies could conceivably be helpful long-term, forcing the industry to economic independence already within reach. Farmers have gone all in on mandated fuel for combustion-based vehicles as one of our largest corn markets. While we battle EPA on the Renewable Fuel Standard, any win could be short-lived if the gasoline market shrinks. In fact, consumers incensed by the ethanol mandate for any reason have a viable alternative to demonstrate their opposition: drive an EV. Politics, not probabilities, will prohibit many farmers from considering these possibilities. But as one car company after another devotes more resources to EVs, the direction of change is clear. And it points away from fossil fuels.
Read more...

Electricity Will Shape Future Farms

Advances in electricity technology seldom focus on agriculture. This is to be expected for our industry that contributes less than 1% of GDP. The actual impact on us of these seemingly unrelated developments, however, could be considerable. For example, large farm buildings cry out to be covered in photo-voltaic (PV) cells, which continue to plummet in price. At the same time, sheds offer room for large batteries to store energy. With or without sellback rules, we could be paying our electricity supplier less. Coupled with a serious generator, farms could lead grid exiting. Throw in ever more efficient electrical devices, such as LEDs, and the already flat electrical consumption curve will turn down. Despite the hype, the energy model marketed by Tesla is not all science fiction. Their enormous battery factory exists and is pumping out thousands of lithium-ion units this year. The greatest threat to the success of this venture is cheaper, better batteries from China. As prices for electric vehicles (EV) drop and battery range increases, the entire sun-to-road scheme is not just feasible but dominating. Meanwhile, John Deere rolled out an electric tractor to deserved skepticism. Like trucks, farm equipment poses adoption barriers orders of magnitude greater. Viewed with farmer myopia, the consequences of EVs are easily discounted. Power Players. The impact will be felt not in how farmers use this technology but in the actions of the rest of the global economy. For example, while farmers are unlikely to rush to buy electric vehicles, what happens when cars like the Tesla S make up even 10% of vehicle sales? Few Americans are faced with our distance and power needs. Commuters could be bypassing gas pumps more rapidly than we imagine. Switching from a car with about 10,000 moving parts to one with 150 means far less maintenance and repair. Electric vehicles are also more adaptable to autonomous operation, regardless of that timeline. The automobile infrastructure—including dealers, repair shops, gas stations, etc.—will all be slimmed down. Those of us who still need diesel power and maintenance could see fewer and more expensive sources. On the bright side, low demand for fuel could drop those prices. Which leads to another side-effect of solar-to-road: ethanol demand. How many Bolts would it take to make gasoline consumption curve down? The short answer: a lot. The better question is how fast we could get there. While currently only 0.1% of auto sales, the present growth rate of 60% per year suggests the upcoming decade of the ’20s will resolve forecast disputes. Trump energy policy reversals make it unlikely the U.S. will lead this change. In fact, watch China: It will shape the future of cars, not the U.S. Additionally, hardly a week passes without some government announcing a drop-dead date in internal combustion engine vehicles. Myriad Drivers. This forecast is accelerating on continuing declines in PV, battery and car costs, all of which seem to be bets investors are taking. Nor will domestic politics control this transition. Even the loss of alternative energy subsidies could conceivably be helpful long-term, forcing the industry to economic independence already within reach. Farmers have gone all in on mandated fuel for combustion-based vehicles as one of our largest corn markets. While we battle EPA on the Renewable Fuel Standard, any win could be short-lived if the gasoline market shrinks. In fact, consumers incensed by the ethanol mandate for any reason have a viable alternative to demonstrate their opposition: drive an EV. Politics, not probabilities, will prohibit many farmers from considering these possibilities. But as one car company after another devotes more resources to EVs, the direction of change is clear. And it points away from fossil fuels.
Read more...