Ethanol

Some Iowa Farmers Now Cut Off from Liquid Propane Supplies

The pain to find liquid propane is growing in states such as Iowa. The issue isn’t supply nationwide-it’s supply in the upper Midwest. One propane retailer said he is sending trucks from Iowa, down to Kansas. Even then, drivers are sitting in lines 30 trucks deep, waiting give hours to fill a single truck. Nebraska is the latest state to make an emergency declaration to help ease propane transportation. Nebraska joined states like Iowa and Minnesota, where officials had already made a declaration, an important step in helping trucks forced to drive hundreds of miles just to try to find pipeline terminals with propane supply. “I talked to Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig yesterday and he told me that would include waiting in line at propane terminals,” said ProFarmer's Inputs Monitor’s Davis Michaelsen  “He said some trucks are traveling as far as Kansas and could be looking at trips as far as Texas to get supply and bring back, and that’s where those hours of service waivers will really help out.” Longer drive times mean added costs, with some propane retailers saying it's adding 30 to 50 cents per gallon of propane. The added cost will ultimately be passed on to buyers, like farmers. That's not a good sign for balance sheets, as farmers are experiencing a wetter than normal harvest hitting all at once, pinching the supply stream and now farmers’ bottom line. “This becomes a very significant cost on a per bushel sense for producers, when they either have to pay that extra cost for the propane or they even can't get access to it,” said Seth Meyer of University of Missouri’s FAPRI. “You're talking about issues of quality of grain that could be substantial. Lots of things can go wrong when you when you try and skirt around not being able to dry your crop.” While states like Iowa are short on supply, Meyer confirmed there is enough supply of liquid propane nationwide. The issue is the pipeline system can’t redirect product easily, making it hard to get propane from states like Texas up to Midwest.
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Progress Reported on Several Trade Fronts

There is trade talk movement on several fronts right now: China President Trump is reiterating that progress is being made toward a comprehensive trade deal with China. He is emphasizing that it will help farmers and ranchers. He talked about the negotiations during a roundtable discussion on the economy in Burnsville, Minnesota this week. President Trump saying, "The farmers have not been treated well for fifteen years. You can go back and it's just a graph downward. Well, we're changing that. You wait and see what's gonna happen, so we'll see if it all works out with China, but we're doing well in the negotiation. It's very comprehensive in the sense that it's a very complete negotiation. We're talking about theft of intellectual property. We're talking about so many other things, but we're also talking about the farmers and the ranchers and people that have not been treated fairly by, really, the world." Reuters is reporting negotiations could include lifting a ban on U.S. poultry and buying more pork. However, it's not likely to ease restrictions on the growth promotant ractopamine. Iowa State agriculture economists say they expect China to import about $4.6 million tons of pork in 2020. Japan Negotiators for both the U.S. and Japan say they conducted talks this week in line with the agreement made between Japan's Prime Minister and President Trump in September. The week's talks focused mostly on goods. The discussions between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Japan's Economy Minister were labeled as "good and frank". National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow was asked about the talks with the Japanese. Kudlow was asked by a reporter about whether the U.S. was looking at separate deals with the Japanese by breaking out agriculture as a temporary fix. Kudlow answered, "Ambassador Lighthizer is walking through that. They're in the talks. The talks are thick and hot and heavy, and I think that's terrific. Japan's a great ally of ours. I don't want to comment on outcomes or any details. I just think it's always healthy when we're talking." Japan's Economic Minister said the discussions were focused on common ground to move the talks forward. Both sides are pledging to accelerate talks between the two nations. European Union Negotiators with the European Union have gotten approval to hold trade talks with the United States. E.U. Trade Chief Cecilia Malmström said this week she wants to finalize negotiations before the end of this European Commission, which is in office through October. Two big hurdles stand in the way: a demand that any negotiation results in the U.S. dropping tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum last year, and that the talks include agriculture. The E.U. is adamant agriculture will not be part of the discussion. U.S. officials say it should. President Trump also touched on that during his economic roundtable in Minnesota. "If you look at the European Union with the barriers they have to agricultural products and cars and so many other things, but the agricultural products, they barely take our agriculture products and yet they can sell Mercedes Benz and they can sell anything they want in our country, including their farm products, and it's not fair," said the President. Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa said this week it's likely any deal is rejected by Congress if it doesn't include agriculture.
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Deadline Extended for Several Farm Programs

Deadlines are being extended for several FSA programs following the partial government shutdown. The new deadline for many of these programs is February 14th. That includes the Final Acreage Report Date (ARD) that would have fallen between the end of last month and January 2rd. February 14th is also the new deadline for the Emergency Conservation Program (ECP), and for the Livestock Forage Program (LFP) and Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP). Marketing Assistance Loans (MAL) can be repaid, forfeited or settled also through February 14th.
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House Ag Chair Calls for Congress to Approve Wall Funding

House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) on Tuesday called for Congress to end the government shutdown and provide the funding President Donald Trump is demanding for a border wall. “So I’m in the room with the other leadership, and I told them you guys are making a mistake; give Trump the money,” Peterson told KFGO radio’s Joel Heitkamp. “Give him the whole thing that he wants and put strings on it so that you make sure he puts the wall where it needs to be.” Peterson voiced frustration as the government shutdown moved into its second month. “There’s a way out of this, but both sides have taken these ridiculous positions. We’ve wasted money on things worse than the wall,” Peterson told KFGO. “And I’m not against the wall. There’s places where it’s needed.” Peterson pointed to the need to strengthen port inspections to curb illegal imports of drugs and illegal immigrants. He also highlighted the need to end payroll uncertainty for 800,000 government workers either furloughed or working without a paycheck during the shutdown. Peterson’s remarks are the first cracks in what has been a unified front from Democrats in the House against providing the $5.7 billion President Trump has demanded for border wall construction.
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China Trade Update: U.S. Considering Lifting Tariffs?

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discussed lifting some, if not all tariffs on China. He may even offer a tariff rollback during the next round of trade discussions. Those talks are planned to begin January 30th with China's economic chief. The WSJ cited people familiar with internal talks. The Journal said the proposal has not yet been introduced to President Trump. Also, the report stated Mnuchin faced push-back from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who feels any concession could be seen as a sign of weakness. A Treasury Department spokesperson told CNBC: "Neither Secretary Mnuchin nor Ambassador Lighthizer has made any recommendations to anyone with respect to tariffs or other parts of the negotiation with China. This is an ongoing process with the Chinese that is nowhere near completion." The report from the Wall Street Journal resulted in the Dow seeing solid gains on Thursday. It closed up 162.94 to 24,370.10.
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Trade Talks Update: Statement Released from U.S. Trade Representative

The U.S. Trade Representative released a statement following three days of meetings in Beijing: Statement on the United States Trade Delegation’s Meetings in Beijing On January 7-9, an official delegation from the United States led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish held meetings in Beijing with Chinese officials to discuss ways to achieve fairness, reciprocity, and balance in trade relations between our two countries. The officials also discussed the need for any agreement to provide for complete implementation subject to ongoing verification and effective enforcement. The meetings were held as part of the agreement reached by President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires to engage in 90 days of negotiations with a view to achieving needed structural changes in China with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft of trade secrets for commercial purposes, services, and agriculture. The talks also focused on China’s pledge to purchase a substantial amount of agricultural, energy, manufactured goods, and other products and services from the United States. The United States officials conveyed President Trump’s commitment to addressing our persistent trade deficit and to resolving structural issues in order to improve trade between our countries. The delegation will now report back to receive guidance on the next steps.
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U.S. and Chinese Officials Meet Ahead of G20 Summit

An important meeting for Chinese and U.S. officials ahead of the G20 summit in Argentina later this month. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense James Mattis, met with two-high ranking Chinese policymakers in Washington last Friday. It was the second time the two sides have taken part in these high-level talks. Pompeo said both sides had constructive dialogue, calling the discussions incredible productive, while also pointing out their significant differences. Pompeo said, "The United States is not pursuing a cold war or containment policy with China. Rather, we want to ensure that China acts responsibly and fairly in support of security and prosperity of each of our two countries. I hope that our discussions today, as well as the upcoming sessions between President Trump and Xi will yield tangible results towards this goal. I am confident they will." A Chinese official called the dialogue candid, constructive and productive. He said it is of great importance to maintain a steady and healthy development of China/U.S. relations.
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Fed Increases Interest Rates, Citing Strong Economy

Following a two-day meeting, Jeremy Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, announced the central bank is increasing interest rates for the third time this year. The Fed plans to increase them again in December, despite President Trump’s plea to slow down rate hikes. This unanimous decision, which had been widely anticipated, increased rates by 25 basis points, to a range of 2% to 2.25%. It was the eighth time the committee has raised rates since late 2015 and was the first time they have ever raised rates in September. Analysts agree the most interesting outcome of the meeting was the removal of the word “accommodative” from its statement. Experts say the unexpected removal of the language could give the committee additional flexibility in how often it raises rates next year. During his comments, Powell was quick to point out the Fed plans to continue with their current strategy. “This change does not signal any change in the likely path of policy,” Powell said. “Policy is still accommodative.” Short-term interest rates tend to see the impact of an interest rate increase first, although savings accounts should see increases too. Similar to the last Fed meeting, Powell is bullish on the economy. "Our economy is strong," Powell said. "Growth is running at a healthy clip, unemployment is low, the number of people working is steadily rising and wages are up."
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EPA To Make RFS Waiver Info Public

Over the past year, farmers and ethanol advocates alike have pressed the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to be more transparent when it comes to Renewable Identification Number (RIN) waivers for small refineries. Today, EPA recognized that concern and created a handful of new sections on their website to ‘increase transparency’ surrounding the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) the agency said in a release. “For the first time, EPA is providing new information to the public on small refinery exemptions and RIN trading,” said EPA Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler. “Increasing transparency will improve implementation of the RFS and provide stakeholders and the regulated community the certainty and clarity they need to make important business and compliance decisions.” According to Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, the RFS is one of the top issues farmers are worried about. “We hear concerns about lack of transparency around the issuance of small refinery waivers and we are hopeful these changes will put everyone on a level playing field to receive the information at the same time,” said U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue. “Farmers stay on top of every bit of news that comes out about the RFS and their industry, so providing them with more information is a priority. Adding timely updates to EPA’s website will be important to USDA’s customers, the people of American agriculture. We have had a great working relationship with Acting EPA Administrator Wheeler and we are pleased to continue it with this progress on RFS information.” New information on the website includes: · The number of small refinery exemption petitions received, approved, and denied for each compliance year; · The weekly average price of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) traded; and · The weekly volume of RINs traded. EPA officials believe the data will provide important information for renewable fuel producers, fuel refiners, importers, and marketers that can be used as they make business and compliance decisions. The EPA intends to coordinate small refinery hardship decisions with website updates allowing the recipients of waivers and the broader market receive the same information at the same time. The agency will also update information on RIN prices and trading volumes on a monthly basis. According to Bob Dineen of the Renewable Fuels Association, the addition of this data to the EPA website is a “step in the right direction.” “Today’s action may prevent small refiners from obtaining market-moving information before other participants in the marketplace,” he explained in a statement. “That’s important because it appears the RIN market was gamed earlier this year by a small group of refiners who were privy to sensitive information regarding compliance exemptions before the rest of the market knew what was going on. Hopefully, this will put a stop to that.” Dineen says these actions aren’t enough, more information and transparency is still needed. “Market participants and the public deserve to know exactly who is receiving small refinery exemptions and what criteria is being used by EPA in making the decision to grant or deny a waiver request,” he said. The Agency has been working to upgrade online systems to provide easy access to the most up-to-date information. These technical upgrades to the website serve to improve transparency in the Agency’s implementation of the statute. The updated RFS website includes interactive and dynamic features that allow users to customize display of RIN information, feedstock type, and producer attributes.
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EPA Waivers Could Rob $20 Billion From Ethanol Demand

Over the next six years, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) refinery exemptions could steal 4.6 billion gallons of domestic ethanol demand—resulting in nearly $20 billion in potential sales lost, according to a recent analysis by the University of Missouri Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). EPA exempts dozens of small refineries from blending obligations required under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), a group that promotes the expansion of renewable fuels and bio-products worldwide, said FAPRI’s analysis “demonstrates the need for EPA to prospectively reallocate small refiner exemptions to larger refiners to ensure statutory RFS volumes are maintained.” FAPRI’s most recent Baseline Outlook for Agricultural and Biofuel Markets showcases the impact of small refiner exemptions in the ethanol industry. For this report, economists assume “implementation of the RFS follows recent practices, including small refinery waivers.” The report shows the following implications: RFS requirements fall from the statutory level of 15 billion gallons annually to 13.7 billion gallons. U.S. ethanol consumption drops an average of 761 million gallons each year from 2018 to 2023, 4.6 billion gallons total which equal 1.64 billion bu. of corn demand over the six-year period. Average ethanol inclusion rate in gasoline falls under 10% in 2019, and slides to 9.5% in 2023. Total consumption of ethanol in flex-fuel vehicles and mid-level blends falls 17% by 2023. Wholesale ethanol prices fall an average of 19 cents per gallon, 11%, between 2018 and 2023. Longer term, the updated outlook lowers ethanol prices by 27 cents per gallon. The industry’s gross revenues will decrease an average of $3.3 billion annually, $19.8 billion total, from 2018 to 2023. Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices will plummet to 10 cents between 2018 and 2023. “The FAPRI analysis clearly shows that demand destruction from small refiner exemptions is real and has substantial economic consequences,” said Scott Richman, RFA chief economist in a recent press release. “If EPA continues to retroactively grant these exemptions, it will cause further harm to the ethanol industry through lower prices, reduced production and additional demand erosion.”
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