Author - jwasilewski
01Apr

Still Plenty Of 2020 Seed To Be Delivered To The Farm

There’s still plenty of corn and soybean seed that has yet to be delivered to the farm, according to a recent polling of the AgPro audience. Combining results from an AgProfessional.com poll with a Twitter poll, there were 76 respondents. 40% say they have more than 61% of their seed yet to deliver. Only 16% reported they have less than 20% in their warehouse still. The polls were conducted at the end of March just as social distancing was being encouraged and many retailers implemented policies to minimize in-person contact.   The Ag Retailers Association has been working to ensure that the input supply chain was deemed essential and ag retailer could continue to operate with exemptions to local and state restrictions being put in place to stop the spread of the coronavirus. ARA’s president and CEO says ag retailers are doing everything they can to get the 2020 growing season off to a strong start. “They're still doing everything they possibly can to serve those growers,” Coppock says. He shares these examples:
  • Retailers asking farmers to call in advance so they can have pick up orders ready for them without requiring face-to-face interaction
  • When picking up/dropping off, people keeping their distance from one another
Wet weather across the Corn Belt has also brought a slow start to the 2020 planting season. Leaders in ag retail report they are ready to serve farmers when the weather breaks and planters are rolling.
 
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31Mar

Planting Intentions: 97 Million Acres Corn, 83.5 Million Acres Soy

Released March 31, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Corn Planted Acreage Up 8 Percent from 2019 Soybean Acreage Up 10 Percent All Wheat Acreage Down 1 Percent All Cotton Acreage Down Less Than 1 Percent Corn planted area for all purposes in 2020 is estimated at 97.0 million acres, up 8 percent or 7.29 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 38 of the 48 estimating States.   Soybean planted area for 2020 is estimated at 83.5 million acres, up 10 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 22 of the 29 estimating States. All wheat planted area for 2020 is estimated at 44.7 million acres, down 1 percent from 2019. This represents the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2020 winter wheat planted area, at 30.8 million acres, is down 1 percent from last year and down slightly from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 21.7 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 5.69 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.42 million acres are White Winter. Area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2020 is estimated at 12.6 million acres, down 1 percent from 2019. Of this total, about 11.9 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2020 is expected to total 1.29 million acres, down 4 percent from the previous year. All cotton planted area for 2020 is estimated at 13.7 million acres, down less than 1 percent from last year. Upland area is estimated at 13.5 million acres, down less than 1 percent from 2019. American Pima area is estimated at 228,000 acres, down 1 percent from 2019. This report was approved on March 31, 2020.
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30Mar

Supply Disruptions Continue to Support Soy and Wheat

Soybeans  
  • The supply of soybeans to Argentine crushing plants is down by half and falling, the Rosario grains exchange.
  •  municipalities citing health concerns defied a government order that they allow cargo trucks to reach the plants.
  • Mayors of dozens of towns near the Rosario grains export hub have blocked ground transport as Argentina locks down against the coronavirus.
  • In the first week of March, 28,033 trucks hauling soy, corn and other agricultural commodities arrived at Rosario ports and meal factories. That number was down to 13,267 last week.
  • FOB meal offers are higher by $5 - $10, as concerns over poor bean movement in Argentina adds a nearby premium.
  • FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: This is leading to shortages at crush plants and causing run rates to remain under pressure. We believe uncertainty about when town/road blockades will be lifted and/or if selling will even pick up once harvest is further along as South American producers are expected to store beans due to higher export taxes and record high inflation will support soy prices, which is a positive for US producers.
  • Wheat 
    • Russia's Agriculture Ministry has proposed to limit grain exports for three months.
    • The proposal is to limit grain exports to 7 million tonnes (mmt) for April-June, and is a response to the Russian government's request to consider whether exports of any food should be limited because of the coronavirus pandemic.
    • This move could limit wheat exports to just 5 mmt in Apr-Jun (other grains ~2 mmt) and restrict Russia’s July-June exports to ~32 mmt vs the USDA forecast at 35 mmt
    • It’s possible the 3 mmt difference could lead to increased interest in US HRW if there isn’t any change in demand patterns.
    • With Russia's history of limiting grain exports in tough times, such as when ruble weakness causes a jump in domestic prices or prospects for the new crop are disappointing, there are fears further steps might follow.
    • In Ukraine, the economy ministry on Friday said it was monitoring wheat exports daily and would take measures if needed.
    • FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer:  World markets are firm. Restrictions in the Black Sea along with tightness / logistical issues in the EU could shift additional export interest to the US, which should support HRW values. Support on setbacks in wheat as the trade dials up the potential for better export interest as the Black Sea worries about their food security is expected. We continue to believe this provides producers with an opportunity to lock in prices that haven't been seen since January on a portion of their production.
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25Mar

Senate Rescue Package Includes $14 Billion to Replenish CCC

Congressional sources confirm that the Senate rescue package includes $14 billion to replenish USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) and provides $9.5 billion for ag producers impacted by Covid-19, including livestock and specialty crops (fruit, veggies and nuts).
The CCC currently has about $9 billion to use. So, this brings CCC borrowing authority to $32.5 billion — not the $50 billion asked for and cited previously by Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), but above the $30 billion normally available. However, the $9.5 billion “is a different pot of money,” one source said.
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24Mar

Ag Retailers Association: Goal Is to Keep Business Running Smoothly

As Ag Retailers Association (ARA) president and CEO Daren Coppock points out, “this is the most important season of the year, no matter which geography you're in, as far as ag is concerned.” He joined host Chip Flory on today’s AgriTalk to discuss how the ARA is helping ensure ag retailers can keep operating and supplying farmers amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of the challenges are the restrictions on face-to-face interactions for retailers and farmers or their ability to have in-person meetings with farmer customers. “It's been a challenge because direct on the farm contact really makes that relationship valuable. A lot of them, if not all of them, have converted to doing it all by phone,” Coppock says. Another challenge is the logistics in delivering to farmers and farmers picking up from retailer locations. “They're still doing everything they possibly can to serve those growers,” Coppock says. He shares these examples: Retailers asking farmers to call in advance so they can have pick up orders ready for them without requiring face-to-face interaction When picking up/dropping off, people keeping their distance from one another Additionally, ARA has been working so the supply chain logistics for agriculture are included in the necessary exemptions for business to continue as it can. “Our focus has been making sure that whenever states or the federal government announced shut down measures or shelter in place measures, that they rely on the DHS definition of critical sectors, which exempts agriculture from those restrictions,” Coppock says. “And as long as that definition holds, and as long as the states interpret it uniformly, then retailers are still going to be able to be in business and serve their customers.” Coppock pledges that ARA is continuing to watch for other unintended consequences of the regulations and how they apply to ag retail. “We've got issues with people that have CDLs, and their license is expiring, but the DMV is closed, and they can't go get them replaced. So we're asking for extensions,” he says.
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18Mar

First Syngenta MIR162 Payments to be Mailed

Farmers wondering where the money from the MIR162, AgriSure Viptera, settlement went will soon have their questions answered in the form of a check. The first payments to class action members will be in the mail soon. For many farmers, their total payments for the settlement could be more than $5,000, according to a recent press release from plaintiff lawyers. “This brings meaningful relief to a long and hard-fought battle. We are gratified that the hundreds of thousands of class members will be compensated for their losses, and we hope these payments help the many farmers who are hurting economically,” said the settlement class counsel, including Patrick Stueve, Dan Gustafson and Chris Seeger.   Starting March 20, expect interim payment checks to include:
  • 65% of producer and landlord settlement amount
  • 50% of grain handling and ethanol production facility settlement amount
The rest of the settlement is expected to be delivered this fall, when all claims are processed. Processing the settlement and getting checks sent is a product of discussions between plaintiff attorneys and judges. After the settlement was decided, Syngenta had no part in discussing distribution strategies. To receive payments, farmers or processors needed to submit certain forms. These forms include payment documents, such as W-9 forms. You will not receive a payment until a W-9 form is received. Payments are part of a larger $1.51 billion settlement related to Syngenta’s marketing Viptera and Duracade-traited corn seed. Certain corn shipments to China were rejected in 2013, as a result of the presence of the then-unapproved traits. Plaintiff lawyers said this lead to a decline in corn market prices. This is believed to be the largest ag settlement in U.S. history.
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16Mar

What a Mild Winter Means for Wheat Pests

With a warmer winter across much of the U.S., winter wheat might be greening up sooner than typical. As it greens up, so do dormant weeds or newly sprouting weeds and some insect pests. Are you scouting to see where fields might need treatment? Disease With current wet conditions and potential for more wet weather on the way, it’s important to watch for fungal disease. A few early season diseases to watch for include stripe rust, fungal leaf spots (that includes tan spot and Septoria leaf blotch) and powdery mildew, according to University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension.
  • Stripe Rust- Overwinters, appears as yellow pustules in the upper and lower canopy in young plants, forms stripes as the plant gets older.
  • Fungal Leaf Spots- While there is more than one fungal disease, they look similar in early development. Symptoms include spots with brown necrotic centers surrounded by yellow halos, starting in the lower leaves and progressing up. Spots can become large dead area on leaves and the diseases are more severe in fields with wheat residue.
  • Powdery Mildew- Favors high humidity and starts on leaves in the lower canopy. It features white, cottony patches of spores on the plant surface that later turn a gray-brown color.
“It is recommended that wheat fields be scouted regularly for early disease detection,” said Stephen Wegulo, Nebraska Extension plant pathologist in a UNL blog post.
 
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13Mar

COVID-19: 5 Things Your Farm Should Do Now

As novel coronavirus (COVID-19) makes its way into the U.S., are you prepared for some of the more likely scenarios that could impact your operation? “Coronaviruses are not new and are responsible for approximately 20% of common colds already, however due to this being a novel coronavirus, the population is very susceptible and transmission will therefore be widespread in the absence of a vaccine,” says Beau Peterson, general manager and director of research at Carthage Veterinary Service (CVS) in Carthage, Ill. “The biggest impact to us and our business will likely be measures put in place to slow or stop the spread of the virus in the U.S.” Being prepared during a time like this is critical. CVS says their veterinary clinic will stay open one way or another. “Testing for COVID19 in the U.S. is just now starting to ramp up. When you consider the number of cases of community transmission already identified, we feel it is highly likely that the virus is much more widespread than what is currently being reported,” Peterson says.  

1.    Ensure people can work.

“One of the most impactful and likely scenarios we see playing out is a closure of schools and daycares in the communities where our business and our clients business operate,” he says. “This would put an incredible strain on families with children who would have to find alternative care options.” CVS is preparing for multiple scenarios to help their employees continue to work despite potential school and daycare closures. •    Work from home: Find solutions to allow office employees to work remotely if needed. Make sure adequate laptops are available, remote connections are accessible for home computers and systems that aren’t normally used remotely are configured for it. •    Creative childcare options: Help employees secure safe alternative care for their children if they have no other options. For example, CVS has some buildings that could be used to allow the parents who can’t work from home to work here and watch their children. “We are a community and we will take a community-based approach to this to help each other if the need arises,” Peterson adds.

2.    Prepare for supply chain disruptions.

Although disruptions haven’t occurred yet, many producers rely on China for some of the raw ingredients and finished goods used on farms. “Shipping disruptions have occurred in China already so there is a potential hole coming, and if port activity is impacted in the U.S., specifically the West Coast where a lot of COVID19 has been identified already, those disruptions could become significant,” Peterson says.  

3.    Monitor upcoming travel.

Carefully consider upcoming meetings that employees are scheduled to attend and make decisions about participation as necessary. In the past week, many international and domestic meetings have been canceled, postponed or moved to a web-based venue.

4.    Plan for interruptions to daily workflow.

Discuss and develop contingency plans for additional needs that would interrupt your daily workflow. This could include delivery of boar semen, shipment of diagnostic samples, product movement from warehouse locations, etc. In a letter to U.S. government officials on Tuesday, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) asked the administration to develop support plans for hog farmers if labor-related bottlenecks in the supply chain prevent hogs from being marketed. "The specter of market-ready hogs with nowhere to go is a nightmare for every pork producer in the nation. It would result in severe economic fallout in rural communities and a major animal welfare challenge,” said NPPC President Howard "A.V." Roth, a hog farmer from Wauzeka, Wis.

5.    Protect yourself.

Use common sense and remain calm. Do what you can to protect yourself and stay healthy –the same things you do every year during flu season, Peterson advises. Remind your employees to: •    Wash their hands frequently. •    Disinfect surfaces frequently. •    Stay home if sick and to be fever-free for 24 hours before returning to work. “The most important thing we can all do is stay informed and have a plan,” Peterson adds. “The producers we serve can’t take time off from caring for their animals, and we are committed to having plans in place that allow us to continue to support them.”
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02Mar

Another Black Swan Hits Cattle Markets

Fears over the coronavirus wiped out more than $3 trillion in the equities markets this week. Livestock and grain markets were hammered, too. The coronavirus meltdown is the second black swan event for cattlemen in six months, but many fear this is worse than the Tyson packing plant fire. Worse because of the uncertainty. With the Tyson fire the industry knew the extent of the damage and had realistic ideas of how long the event would last. With the coronavirus traders are uncertain of the damage or how long it will impact markets. And as we are reminded regularly, markets don’t like uncertainty. CME Cattle futures extended the week’s losses as fears the coronavirus will hurt global growth and demand for beef. Volume on Thursday’s trade was the most in 13 months, suggesting new shorts as some contracts hit new lows. April live cattle futures hit another contract low Friday and finished down $2.90 at $107.675. For the week, April live cattle lost a whopping $10.675. March feeder cattle futures hit a 5.5-month low Friday and finished the session down $1.30 at $131.275, and for the week fell $8.375. Both futures markets closed at technically bearish weekly and monthly low closes Friday. The rout spilled into the cash trade, with fed cattle unusually active early in the week. Hedged sellers pushed sales early this week and volumes will be higher from last week. Monday saw cash cattle trades at $116, but by Thursday $115 was the norm, with a few cattle trading lower. Compared to last week that would be $3 to $4 lower. Cattle sold in the North on a dressed basis at $185 to $187 which is $3 to $5 lower. Choice beef cutout closed $0.21 higher at $205.30, while Select was $2.79 lower at $198.91. The Choice-Select spread was $6.39.
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27Feb

Sorghum Expected to Hit its Stride with Sales and Acre Increases

Cotton could lose acres to sorghum this year, according to the National Sorghum Producers. Trade is showing positive momentum for the grain and this week the USDA is reporting weekly sorghum sales nearly hit a six-year high. “I think they all line up for some positive reasons why we expect to see a better year [for sales],” says Tim Lust, CEO of National Sorghum Producers to U.S. Farm Report Host Tyne Morgan. “[I] didn’t say it was 2015-level, but certainly a start to getting back to normal [trade]. We do know that China is committed to coming forward and starting purchases.” Sorghum is used for traditional livestock feed, but another notable consumer in some Asian countries is ducks. While producers could see decreased demand from hogs due to African Swine Fever, ducks and other uses for the crop could help pick up some slack. This week’s export sales for sorghum hit 444,500 MT for 2019/2020—a marketing year high—and up from last week and the prior four-week average. USDA specified 119,000 MT were to China, with the balance (324,000 MT) to unknown destinations. “We do know that April will be a very telling time for us in terms of giving us a size and scope [of sales],” Lust says. “I think from a big picture standpoint for our crop at least, we’ve had great communications with our buyers over the last couple of weeks.” However, the waiting game to see just how long these increased sales last, or how high they can go is leaving some producers uneasy. “As a farmer it’s tough to be told to sit and wait—things are going to happen,” says Dan Adkinson, sorghum producer in Stockton, Kan., and chairman of National Sorghum Producers. “[It’s tough] when we’ve got planting decisions to make and we’ve got to keep farming in the process.” In his area of the country, Adkinson doesn’t expect to see much, if any shift in acres toward sorghum. “We don’t have some of the other crop options that producers either further south of us or further east of us have,” he says. “So, I think through most of the Sorghum Belt it will be a fairly steady decision. “I’m optimistic that we can put, not a lot, but price on our product—enough to put it into black ink,” Adkinson adds.
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