Author - jwasilewski
20Aug

Illinois Yield Potential Shines Despite Mother Nature’s Challenges

When it rained, it poured and earlier this season, Illinois farmers just couldn’t get away from wet weather. It resulted in later planting, replant and some not-so-great planting conditions across much of the state. Despite it all, the state’s yields are beating three-year-average estimates. When it comes to corn, yields are expected to be 4.35% higher than the three-year average and soybeans 5.19% higher. Scouts did note that tar spot, a potentially devastating new disease, was in two of the counties sampled (Knox and Stark). While scouts did get into areas with damage, they aren't in the heart of it just yet. "We'll get more intensively into it [derecho area] tomorrow," says Brian Grete, Pro Farmer Editor. "It's hard to scout through. It'll take longer when it's laying down in multiple directions. You have to ID the row, count the ears, it just takes time. You have to start from the ground up and it's just time consuming."   Illinois corn yield is expected to hit 189.40 bu. per acre, and soybeans are anticipated to reach 1247.38 pods per 3X3 square. The three-year average for corn is just 181.51 bu. per acre and soybeans per 3X3 square are 1185.79. There were only three irrigated soybean fields and five irrigated corn fields sampled throughout the state. Doug Warters, scout on the eastern tour who made his way through Illinois and into Iowa today, said corn samples looked good but soybeans were more inconsistent along his route. Damage from the recent derecho started showing up on the western side of Illinois. For some farmers, harvest could be extremely challenging—especially on corn acres. “[For example] we had one field that we called ‘moderate’ lodging and wind damage where the corn was flat,” says Jim Smith, scout along the eastern leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. “The yield estimate came out at 264 bu. per acre—but I’m sure we’re not going to get that 264 because the corn was so flat.” It’ll be a low and slow harvest, and farmers with reels will be in a better position to gather as much of the yield potential as possible. Soybeans, however, were better looking because they were earlier in their lifecycles and had less lodging. “All the fields we’ve sampled of soybeans have been extremely clean, no disease,” Smith says. “We still have a lot of questions on the beans though.” On many of the plants he said they were counting pods, but it was still flowering and had only recently pollinated. With cooperation from Mother Nature, a substantial number of pods could develop between now and harvest, he adds. As you’d expect, there was variation from crop district to crop district in terms of estimates. Check out each sampled district here (note corn is in bu. per acre and soybeans are in pods per 3X3 square):
  • District 1
    • Corn 183.63, 42 samples
    • Soybeans 1321.97, 41 samples
  • District 2
    • Corn 201.19, 12 samples
    • Soybeans 1220.00, 12 samples
  • District 3
    • Corn 195.63, 25 samples
    • Soybean 1330.94, 25 samples
  • District 4
    • Corn 189.61, 55 samples
    • Soybeans 1168.99, 55 samples
  • District 5
    • Corn 181.00, 53 samples
    • Soybeans 1192.27, 52 samples
  • District 6
    • Corn 203.71, 12 samples
    • Soybeans 1282.05, 12 samples
  • District 7
    • Corn 204.13, 14 samples
    • Soybeans 1386.12, 14 samples
Scouts took 213 corn samples and 211 soybean samples this year. This exceeds the total number of samples, 399, scouts gathered in 2019. First glance, Iowa burdened by drought and wind damage: As scouts snaked their way north and east from Nebraska and in from Illinois, the were inundated with clearly challenging conditions in the Hawkeye State. “[I’d walk in and] there’s a good ear population and when I pulled my fifth, eight and eleventh ear there was one-half to two inches of tip back—that’s not a good sign,” says Jeff Wilson, Pro Farmer director for the western leg of the tour. The tip back issues and pollination issues he saw boiled down to drought issues in the southwest part of the state. “The crop is mid-dent, so what you have is what you’re going to get,” he adds. “If you could get a little more rain maybe you could add test weight to make a higher quality crop.” Soybeans stayed consistent along his route. Drier areas, of course, came in a little lower, but where the soybeans had moisture Wilson counted more than 1300 pods per 3X3 square on a nine-stop average. If the rains keep coming the soybeans should meet yield estimate expectations. So far, scouts sampled three districts in the state. Here are the results so far (corn in bu. per acre, soybeans in pods per 3X3 square):
  • District 1
    • Corn 181.26, 81 samples
    • Soybeans 1013.31, 81 samples
  • District 4
    • Corn 172.41, 72 samples
    • Soybeans 1177.41, 71 samples
  • District 7
    • Corn 184.74, 55 samples
    • Soybeans 1164.03, 51 samples
By Grains0 Comments
Read more...
18Aug

Iowa Says Derecho Destroyed Grain Storage

A severe windstorm last week destroyed or seriously damaged more than 57 million bushels of commercial grain storage capacity in Iowa and a similar amount on farms, the state's agriculture department estimated on Tuesday, raising concerns ahead of the autumn harvest. Fresh estimates of the damage from the Aug. 10 derecho emerged as U.S. President Donald Trump prepared to visit Iowa, the top U.S. corn producing state, the day after approving disaster aid for the state. The storm crumpled steel storage bins, flattened corn fields, caused widespread damage in towns and left thousands of people without power. The destruction compounded troubles for a U.S. agricultural economy already battered by extreme weather, the U.S.-China trade war and disruptions to labor and food consumption from the COVID-19 pandemic. Iowa's agriculture department said it will cost more than $300 million to remove, replace or repair the damaged grain storage bins.
By Grains0 Comments
Read more...
14Aug

Unprecedented Damage Could Change National Yield in a ‘Big Way’

Hurricane-force like wind screamed through parts of the Corn Belt earlier this week. With the wind came never-before-seen damage to corn and soybean fields, grain storage facilities and communities. “Never in my career have I seen so many acres damaged in one year by wind and wind alone,” says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. “The scale of this issue is unprecedented.” Ferrie anticipates this wide-spread damage, in conjunction with wind damage in mid-July, will change national corn-yield averages dramatically. Farmers with damage will fight not only yield loss during grain fill, but enhanced harvest loss as well. In addition, ear rots will be a greater risk when ears are closer to the ground. Our prayers go out to all of you that were caught up in this monster,” Ferrie says. “It’s time to put together your harvest strategy to deal with the issues coming your way this fall.” Here are a few major considerations to keep in mind because of the storm:
  • Harvest will be slower.
  • Work with grain delivery points to make sure they can handle the crop this fall.
  • Start thinking about seed next year—there could be supply issues in 2021.
“This storm came right through seed corn alley in Iowa and I expect those fields are going to take a hard hit as well,” he says. “We may have to keep an eye on seed supplies next spring.” What to watch in non-wind-damaged areas. While the swath of wind-damaged acres is large, it’s not quite everyone. Keep your boots in the dirt scouting to make sure you don’t let pests such as insects, disease or weeds damage the yields you’ve worked all season to build. “We’re now seeing aphids in late May and June corn,” Ferrie says. “[Also check] to make sure there aren’t second generation corn borer flights as well.” Watch for these pests in non-traited corn fields especially. In addition, he’s seeing some corn rootworm resistance to below-ground, traited hybrids. Dig roots to check for feeding and take good notes to use the next time that field is planted to corn. “Disease pressure continues to build in corn,” he adds. “And I do expect to see some sudden death [syndrome] this week to start showing up in beans.”
By Grains0 Comments
Read more...
07Aug

Could China’s Massive Rainstorms Be A “Black Swan” for Markets?

Areas of China have been inundated by a monsoon, bringing massive rainstorms and creating extreme flooding. The South China Morning Post reported this week on a natural gas pipeline explosion and several roads collapsing due to heavy rains in parts of Yulin, a city in China’s northwestern Shaanxi province. Authorities are evacuating residents from the area. The Guardian reported some places have recorded more than double the normal amount of rain through June and July as the active monsoon has put water pressure on the Three Gorges dam and the millions of people who live downstream in towns such as Wuhan. “Based on our research, we are thinking 10% to 15% of overall ag production could be impacted by the flooding,” says Brian Splitt, a technical analyst with AgMarket.net. “The one thing I would say with confidence is if something happened with the dam, we’d see market volatility increase substantially at that point,” Splitt says. There could be flooding in metropolitan areas, which could create manufacturing problems, he adds. “This could potentially be another black swan in 2020 where equity markets are going to be riled by that,” Splitt says. “[We] could have implications on currency as well.”
By Grains0 Comments
Read more...
03Aug

Despite Drought, Cow Slaughter Trends Lower

Despite an expanding drought, U.S. cow slaughter is down 0.5% from last year and draws attention to how cull cows impact America’s beef consumption. For the week ending July 20, USDA reports total beef and dairy cow slaughter at 114,500 head, down 3.4% from the same week a year ago. Over the past four weeks – including the holiday-shortened week – total slaughter was 455,700 head, down 0.5%. “The decline in cow slaughter may come as a surprise to those looking at some of the dry conditions that have developed in the Texas Panhandle and Western Kansas,” writes Len Steiner in the Daily Livestock Report. “But even as this region accounts for a large share of the US beef cow herd, and thus slaughter, it is important to remember that cows are widely distributed around the country.” USDA reported U.S. beef cow slaughter for the last four weeks increased by 20,300 head, or 9% compared to the same period last year. During the same four weeks, however, dairy cow slaughter was down 22,400 head or 10% from a year ago. California’s beef cow inventory was 665,000 head on January 1, but the number of dairy cows in the state is much larger at 1.725 million head. Dairy cow slaughter in region 9 is down 11% during the last four weeks compared to last year.
By Livestock0 Comments
Read more...
31Jul

Is China the Only Answer to Save Corn Prices This Year?

China made a monster buy this week of corn. USDA confirmed the 1.9 million metric tons sale was the third largest on record, and the biggest U.S. corn buy ever by China. Even with the new demand, the corn market still seemed unphased. Analysts say much of that was because traders were focused on the weather Thursday. Drought-stricken areas of the Corn Belt saw some rain, helping revive some of the crop needing rain. That positive weather added more pressure to already low corn prices. What will it take to boost corn prices moving forward? Some analysts think it’s going to take more demand from China.  Darin Newsom of Darin Newsom Analysis saw China may be part of the equation, but not all of it.
“Thinking that our great trade war enemy is going to be the one to step in and save the corn market, the ethanol market, soybean market, soybean meal, pork, cattle, whatever else, seems a bit foolhardy,” he says. “Does the US need China? Absolutely. Are they going to step in and save all of our markets? Absolutely not.” Newsom says the biggest advantage the corn market has right now is not only low prices attracting buyers, but also a weaker U.S. dollar “If we just look at this from a business point of view, and put all the politics aside, U.S. crops and U.S. supplies are going to have a good value on the world stage going into 2020-21,” says Newsom.  “The question is, ‘Will it be enough to offset the political side? And what happens in November?’ So, do we need China? Sure. Is it going to happen? I think the jury's still out.”
 
By Grains0 Comments
Read more...
28Jul

U.S. Warns Against Planting Unsolicited Seeds from China

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday warned residents against planting unsolicited packages of seeds arriving from China because they could harm the environment. At least eight states, from Washington to Ohio, have also told residents in recent days not to put the seeds in the ground, after they arrived apparently from China in the mailboxes of people who did not order them. Officials said the seeds could be invasive species that could threaten crops or livestock. "At this point in time we don't have enough information to know if this is a hoax, a prank, an internet scam or an act of agricultural bioterrorism," Ryan Quarles, Kentucky's agriculture commissioner, said in a video posted on the department's website. Photos of packages that state agriculture departments posted on social media show seeds of different sizes, shapes and colours that arrived in white or yellow envelopes. State officials said some packages were labelled as jewellery and may have contained Chinese writing. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Tuesday that China's postal service strictly abides by restrictions on sending seeds. Records on the packages appear to have been falsified, according to checks by China's postal service, which has asked for them to be sent to China for investigation, he said, speaking at a daily news briefing. The USDA said it is "aware that people across the country have received unsolicited packages of seed from China in recent days." The agency is working with the Department of Homeland Security and states to protect U.S. agriculture and prevent the unlawful entry of prohibited seeds, according to a statement. State officials have asked recipients to secure the seeds in sealed plastic bags until they are picked up by authorities. Police in Whitehouse, Ohio, said it appears the seeds are tied with a scam in which vendors ship inexpensive products to unwitting receivers and then submit positive reviews on e-commerce websites on the receiver's behalf. "Although not directly dangerous, we would still prefer that people contact us to properly dispose of the seeds," the police said on Facebook. The Washington State Department of Agriculture said on Facebook that the shipments are "agricultural smuggling." It asked recipients to save them for the USDA because "they may be needed as evidence."
By Grains0 Comments
Read more...
26Jul

Tyson Fire, Pandemic Market Report Released By USDA

USDA released Wednesday the long-awaited report on its investigation into cattle market disruptions  following last year’s Tyson Foods packing plant fire and this spring’s impact from the coronavirus pandemic. The 20-page report confirmed massive volatility to both the cash and futures markets yet found no wrong-doing on the part of any industry participants. Prepared by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service in coordination with the Office of the Chief Economist, summarizes market conditions, fed cattle prices, boxed beef values and the spread before and after the two market-disrupting events. Appearing on Wednesday’s AgriTalk PM shortly after the report’s release, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall said the industry is glad to have the report in hand, though acknowledged it will not satisfy everyone. The report “very readily acknowledges that there are a lot of issues that we need to address – packing capacity, for example, further transparency.” While AMS did not cite any wrong-doing, the investigations are not over, and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue indicated as much in a statement. “While we’re pleased to provide this update, we assure producers that our work continues in order to determine if there are any violations of the Packers and Stockyards Act,” Perdue said. “If any unfair practices are detected, we will take quick enforcement action.” Issuing his own statement after the report, Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, who has called on the Justice Department to open an investigation into the cattle markets, said, “As USDA continues to investigate market manipulation and unfair practices, today’s report lays out steps we can take to fix this marketplace. Congress has a responsibility to heed the advice of this report and take action to restore cattle price transparency when we reauthorize Livestock Mandatory Price Reporting requirements.” Woodall said NCBA has focused on “having some minimum cash trade levels in order to have price discovery and some sort of trigger mechanism that could go along with that. I do believe that is going to be a big topic during our summer business meeting next week here in Denver.” The Justice Department’s investigation is ongoing and Woodall said DOJ employees have been in the country “interviewing people throughout the entire beef supply chain. There’s more to come on this in terms of whether or not there’s any sort of criminal action that may have taken place.” But the AMS report also supports the argument that while the two black swan events caused disruption and economic harm to producers, the markets reacted to those events and not to some outside intervention. “There was nothing (in the report) to indicate any sort of market manipulation,” Woodall said. “Once we look back at this, we understand that it has had a significant impact on our industry and a significant impact on prices and is still having an impact.” To producers who may be unhappy with the findings of AMS’ report, Woodall’s message to them is, “It’s not over. This is just one part of it. I think this is an important piece of the overall puzzle and we needed to see what USDA would find. There are a lot of individuals who believe that anything short of Packers going to jail is not going to be acceptable. But I hope that they will take the time to read what is here and understand that USDA spent a lot of time and effort to try to make sure that they get they get as much information that they can analyze, look at it from a true third party viewpoint, in order to provide  the industry some of the best information we could get.” The North American Meat Institute also released a statement about the USDA investigation into beef price margins. “In its analysis of the effects of the fire and the pandemic, USDA found no wrong-doing and confirms the disruption in the beef markets was due to devastating and unprecedented events,” said Meat Institute President and CEO, Julie Anna Potts. “It is difficult to see how the USDA’s recommended legislative proposals would have changed the outcome of the fire or the pandemic.” Related stories:
By Grains, Livestock0 Comments
Read more...
22Jul

No Holiday, No Problem For Beef, Pork Sales

Following robust Independence Day meat sales, analysts expected a softening of demand from consumers. Data from the week ending July 12, however, suggests – at least for one week – consumers remain aggressive buyers. According to Anne-Marie Roerink, president 210 Analytics, “elevated everyday demand resulted  in a 21.4% increase in dollar sales” at retail last week versus a year ago, and the spiking coronavirus pandemic appears to be the reason. “As COVID-19 cases are rising across many states, several rolled back the re-opening of restaurants and businesses,” Roerink said. “In some cases, the rollback prohibits in-restaurant dining altogether, in others, dine-in capacity was more restricted — much like late March and April. The reversal on restaurant openings along with rising consumer concern over COVID-19 is likely to shift dollars back from foodservice to food retail once more.” Roerink notes non-holiday weeks had been seeing some erosion in gains of dollar sales, but last week’s numbers represent a five percentage point increase from the latest non-holiday week, June 28. “This also became the 17th week of double-digit gains since the onset of the pandemic,” she said. “While higher prices drove much of this gain, volume increased as well, at +7.7%. This was the highest volume gain during a non-holiday week since mid-April. Unit purchases in the meat department increased by 16.2 million, or 8.1%, over the week of July 12 versus last year, while volume increased 7.7%. This points to more, but smaller, packages sold.” According to analysis by IRI, a data analysis firm, dollar sales are up 35.9% during the pandemic starting March 15 through July 12. Volume sales have increased 22.5% during the same time. The increase translates into an additional $7.4 billion in meat department sales during the pandemic. That includes an additional $3.3 billion for beef, $1 billion for chicken and $794 million for pork. Beef and pork production continue strong after the initial pandemic slowdown, while chicken production is down. “Pork and beef production continue to exceed year-ago, up 12.1% and 2.1%, respectively,” said Christine McCracken, Executive Director Food & Agribusiness for Rabobank. “A 10% year-over-year increase in hog slaughter drove the sizable increase in pork, with weights contributing the balance. Heavier carcass weights more than offset a slight (-0.8%) drop in fed cattle slaughter. Chicken production moved lower again this week, as slaughter levels continue to reflect the cuts taken this spring and higher weights offering a limited offset.”  
By Uncategorized0 Comments
Read more...
20Jul

Hail and Wind Damaged Corn: What You Need to Know

While recent rainfall helped alleviate some of the drought stress across the Midwest, it came at a cost. High winds and hail mean some farmers are facing ugly fields, and potentially challenging harvests. “The rain was perfect timing for our April planted corn that’s in the middle or just getting started with the pollination process this week,” says Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist. “The two inches of rain will produce more yield than the wind damage will cost. But there’s no doubt this windstorm was very expensive in both yield and harvest complications. We’ll realize the full effect of this storm in the fall.” Several fields from Minnesota, to Kentucky suffered from wind or hail damage. Yield loss from this kind of damage varies greatly, based on how bad the event was in your area and what growth stage the corn was in.   “The younger your corn plant, the less damage you’ll see,” Ferrie says. “April-planted corn that is tasseling or one or two leaves form tasseling will have the most damage.” When you’re scouting fields with damage, check for viable ear count. If the stalk is snapped below the ear that’s obviously a zero count. If it’s snapped above the ear it could still produce an ear, pending it’s able to get pollinated despite the top being broken off. If the corn is lodged, older corn is more likely to continue to have potential issues. “This older corn will tip the top of the plant back up but most of the stock is going to stay tipped,” Ferrie says. “This will put several ears on the backside of the stock, giving us some pollination issues. Half of the ear-filling leaves will also be on the downside of the stock and not receive sunlight. This will reduce grain filling capabilities and bushels.” Later-planted corn could have some advantages over the earlier planted hybrids. In either case, start planning for a potentially challenging harvest now. If needed, start working with providers for equipment like combine reels. Fungicide considerations While you’re checking for ear count, keep an eye out for fungus and disease. With tasseling occurring or closing in quickly, it’s prime time to make a decision on fungicides. “The biggest issue we must deal with is how un-uniform this April corn is,” Ferrie says. “If you’re spraying fungicide on pre-tassel corn, pull out the surfactant to prevent pinched ears. Most of the field have late emergers and replant corn in the same field, so decisions will have to be made whether to pull out surfactant or wait for the late corn to shoot a tassel before fungicide application.” Check fields to see if the diseases are at threshold to help decide what to do about any uneven emergence issues. When it comes to hail-damaged corn, Ferrie says if fungicide is part of your normal program and standability is a concern, treat hail acres.  
By Grains0 Comments
Read more...