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Livestock Methane Emissions Data May Be Faulty

For decades scientists have sought to measure animal methane emissions to determine the impact food animals have on our environment. Such studies often provided unfavorable results for animal agriculture, and the results have supported radical ideas that all forms of animal food production be halted. New research, however, suggests current estimates of total livestock methane emissions may be faulty. Scientists at Pennsylvania State University have concluded those estimates rely on outdated factors and do not fully consider feed intake, differences in animal diets or the facilities used to store manure. In short, the researchers claim there are large uncertainties in methane emission figures and that the amount of gas animals release remains open for debate. Published in the American Chemical society's peer-reviewed journal Environmental Science & Technology, the Penn State researchers analyzed feed intake data for cattle and manure storage practices for cattle, pigs and poultry at the county and state levels in the United States. A total of 3,063 counties in the contiguous U.S. were included in the cattle methane emission database with inventories from the 2012 Census of Agriculture (latest Census available). The study found total livestock methane emissions comparable to current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates, and to the estimates from the global gridded Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory. However, methane estimates by location varied significantly from those reported by EDGAR. Specifically, manure methane emissions from Texas and California were 36% less and 100% greater in the Penn State study than reported by EDGAR. Using their data, the researchers believe that results from studies that use inaccurate distribution inventories to determine emissions sources must be interpreted cautiously. The U.S. EPA says livestock production is responsible for 36% of anthropogenic methane production in the U.S. That's second behind the combined energy sector (natural gas, petroleum systems and coal mining; total 40%), and ahead of landfill methane production at 18%. The researchers said there is a large uncertainty in both enteric and manure methane emissions from livestock. "Work around the world has shown that variability in enteric methane emissions can be largely explained with variability in feed dry matter intake (DMI). Nutrient composition of the feed is also important but has a lesser impact on enteric methane production than DMI."
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DuPont Collaborates with Sumitomo Chemical for Seed Treatments

Sumitomo Chemical Company, parent company of Valent, recently entered an agreement with DuPont Crop Protection, a business unit of DowDuPont Agriculture Division, for the development, registration and commercialization of seed treatment technology globally. The pair entered this agreement to speed up development and commercialization of seed-applied technology products. It combines the conventional chemical and biological pipeline of Sumitomo with seed technology, development and commercialization ability of DuPont’s. The companies say working together will allow them to identify and evaluate technology earlier to make commercialization decisions and investments sooner. “We typically share products with other companies two to four years before commercialization,” says Trey Soud, Valent director of row crop marketing. “This brings them together earlier and the end goal is commercializing products that might not have been found without early collaboration.” The companies worked together in the past on a corn fungicide called Intego. This collaboration formalizes and grants the companies access to each other’s technology earlier in the development process than in the past. “Two to three years would be a reasonable timeline because we can look at new products earlier and jointly develop them earlier,” says Mick Messman, DuPont director of global seed applied technologyu. For products not yet registered we would need to wait for that registration, which would add time, he adds. “Once regulatory happens we can launch products at a larger scale,” Messman says. Companies will focus on the North American cropping region, but maintain the potential to market globally.
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Tax Reform Losers From Biofuels to Coal to Get Second Chance

Energy lobbyists, who failed to get a range of expired breaks for biofuels to coal-fired power plants into the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul bill making its way through Congress, may get a second chance before the end of the year. The Senate plans to act on a slate of expired tax credits before month’s end, according to John Thune, the Senate’s No. 3 ranking Republican who serves on the Finance Committee. Lobbyists have been told the package of "tax extenders" -- renewing tens of billions of dollars in expired tax incentives -- could be hitched to must-pass government funding legislation expected in coming weeks. "I would say the discussion of the extenders package is a golden opportunity," said Scott Segal, a Bracewell LLP lobbyist seeking tax credits for small wind projects, geothermal heat pumps, and fuel cells. Representatives of the House and Senate tax writing committees didn’t respond to requests seeking comment on the timing. In addition to the expiring benefits, the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, which represents companies such as American Electric Power Co. and Peabody Energy Corp., is seeking a new tax credit for existing coal-fired power plants that would total $65 billion over 10 years. "We think we have a good case to make," said Paul Bailey, the group’s president. "We’ve had a lot of retirements and there is a lot of concern about reliability and grid resilience so we think that is a good reason to have a tax credit that would prevent some coal retirements." The proposal, which would allow nearly every U.S. coal plant to qualify, comes as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is also moving forward with a rule to help coal plants that would apply to about 40,000 megawatts of coal out of a fleet of about 260,000 megawatts, Bailey said. Meanwhile, the nuclear industry, which is retiring plants in the face of competition from electricity sources such as cheap natural gas and renewable power, is also seeking a tax credit, said David Brown, senior vice president of federal affairs for Exelon Corp., the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. The 30 percent investment tax credit, which as envisioned would phase down over time and then become a 10 percent permanent tax credit, is estimated to cost $5 billion, Brown said. Nuclear Credits While the FERC proposal would also help nuclear plants, Brown said it wouldn’t become effective soon enough to help the nuclear fleet. The tax credit, he said, would be "a bridge until the markets can appropriately value the attributes that nuclear can bring to the table." A separate measure extending a production tax credit for nuclear power could also find a home in the Senate’s tax extenders bill. It’s been championed by Republican Senator Johnny Isakson, and could benefit Southern Co., which is building new nuclear reactors in his home state of Georgia. Other tax credits sought for the package include the reinstatement and multiyear extension of a $1.01 a gallon tax credit for the production of cellulosic ethanol -- which, unlike traditional corn ethanol, is made from garbage, algae and corn stover -- and a $1 per gallon credit for biodiesel. Both of which have been championed by Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley. The legislation could also provide an opportunity to tweak language in the Senate’s tax reform bill that would stifle the tax equity market used as a key source of financing for the renewable energy industry and has caused the stock price of companies such as First Solar Inc and SunPower Corp. to slump. Grassley, who serves on the Finance Committee, sought to modify those provisions in the Senate bill so that tax equity from credits for wind and solar would be protected. Oil companies, ethanol producers, labor unions and environmental groups are also working to persuade lawmakers to renew -- and expand -- a tax credit that rewards businesses for every ton of carbon dioxide they capture. Under current policy, the credit for that captured gas -- worth $10 or $20 per ton, depending on how it is stored -- runs out once 75 million tons worth of credits are used. Supporters of that 45Q tax credit, as it is known, argue it helps encourage companies to clean up emissions from ethanol plants, refineries and power plants, while ensuring the oil industry has enough carbon dioxide to pump underground and boost crude extraction. Other credits sought for the extenders bill include the ones for small wind projects, geothermal heat pumps, fuel cells and other energy sources, known as "orphans" because they were left out of 2015 omnibus spending legislation that extended credits for wind and solar. "Most observers thought this issue was going to be taken care of a long time ago and should have been part of the 2015 compromise," said Segal, the Bracewell lobbyist.
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NPPC Announces Support for Farmers for Free Trade

Today, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC), the global voice for the U.S. pork industry and leader on public-policy issues for America's 60,000 pork producers, announced its support for Farmers for Free Trade. Farmers for Free Trade is a bipartisan campaign co-chaired by former Senators Max Baucus and Richard Lugar that is working to rebuild support for trade at the grassroots level. The National Pork Producers Council joins the American Farm Bureau Federation and other agriculture trade and commodity groups that are partnering with Farmers for Free Trade to strengthen support for trade in rural communities. "NPPC is proud to get behind this bipartisan effort to build a sustainable network of support for trade among our nation's farmers and ranchers," said NPPC President Ken Maschhoff, a pork producer from Carlyle, Ill. "Exports are vital to the financial livelihoods of pork producers. We need help getting the word out more broadly in rural America that trade generates jobs and prosperity. "We look forward to working with our friends in many other sectors of American agriculture as well as with Farmers for Free Trade to get out the message that rural America benefits from trade." "The support of the National Pork Producers Council is a huge boost for our bipartisan effort," said Senator Baucus. "Not only because they'll help us reach pork producers across the country, but also because they've long led the fight for smart trade policies that help American farmers. The Pork Producers understand that rebuilding bipartisan support for trade on Capitol Hill requires first reestablishing consensus at home among the American people. With the support of the Pork Producers we're going to continue to organize, educate and mobilize farmers whose livelihoods depend on trade." "Momentum behind this effort continues to grow," said Senator Lugar. "With the support of groups like the Pork Producers and the Farm Bureau, we are going to ramp up our efforts at the state and district level. This effort is more needed than ever in order to help alleviate the decline in farm incomes by opening new export markets and safeguarding access to the markets we have." Farmers for Free Trade is currently working at the grassroots level to organize and educate farmers about the importance of trade, including through work at state commodity conventions, through state proclamations, by reaching farmers through social media, and by identifying local spokespeople, among other efforts. Senators Baucus and Lugar outlined some of the key policy priorities that will help rebuild bipartisan support for trade in an op-ed earlier this year.
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Hog Price Prospects Strengthen

Hog prices this fall have been stronger than anticipated. In early October, USDA analysts estimated that fourth quarter live prices would average $38 to $40 per hundredweight. Now it looks like the actual price will be $46 to $47. It is always enjoyable to exceed expectations, but what is the source of the better hog prices and will those factors continue in 2018? The answer to the last question appears to be YES! The better hog prices are due to consumer demand. The U.S. economic growth in the third quarter reached 3.3 percent with the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent, the lowest since 2000. Strong income growth and more people working improves the consumption of meats including pork. The 2018 outlook is for continued income growth and even lower unemployment. In addition, higher stock and housing values tend to cause consumers to spend more freely as well. Pork is growing in popularity with our foreign customers. The world economy in 2018 is expected to have its strongest year since the 2008-2009 recession. A little additional information on how pork trade is helping to enhance hog prices is important. So far this year, pork exports are up eight percent and net trade (exports minus imports) is up 10 percent. U.S. pork production is up about 2.5 percent this year but the more positive trade balance means that U.S. consumers have only one percent more pork available. With domestic population expanding by near one percent, this means that pork available per person this year is about the same as 2016. Mexico is the biggest reason for increased exports so far this year. Mexican pork purchases surged above Japan in 2015 to become our number one export destination. Since then, Mexico has continued to put Japan in the rearview mirror. In 2017, Mexican pork purchases have exceeded Japan by 45 percent. South Korea, our fourth largest buyer has increased the volume of pork purchases from the U.S. this year by 18 percent. What about pork exports in 2018? USDA analysts are suggesting an additional six percent rise for 2018. Finally, increased packer capacity has begun to reduce packer margins and is likely contributing to higher farm level hog prices this fall. Packer margins began to drop sharply beginning in August 2017 as new capacity began to come on-line. By October, the packer margin, as reported by USDA, fell to 48 cents per retail pound compared to 79 cents per retail pound one year earlier. These new plants are expected to continue to expand numbers in 2018 as they work toward full capacity. A year-ago we were talking about higher pork supplies in 2017 and higher hog prices. That prediction has turned to reality. Live hog prices in 2016 averaged about $46 per live hundredweight. That price will be near $51 for 2017. The lean futures market is currently optimistic for the same outcome in 2018 suggesting that live prices may average about $53 in 2018. My estimates are for pork supplies to rise around 2.5 percent in 2018 and if hog prices do rise again, it will most likely be due to the demand factors outlined earlier. My estimates of feed cost are to rise modestly in calendar year 2018 with corn prices up about 15 cents per bushel and meal up about $15 per ton compared to calendar 2017. My estimated total costs of production increases from around $49 in 2017 to a bit over $50 for 2018. With moderate feed costs and a low general inflation rate, my estimated total production costs have been near $50 for the most recent four calendar years from 2015 through 2018. What a different world it was in the nine years from 2005 through 2013 when my estimated annual costs ranged from $35 per live hundredweight to $67. For 2018, the current outlook is for positive returns above all costs. The level of positive returns is expected to be in the range of $6 to $8 per head for both 2017 and 2018.
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Pork Industry Advances Sustainable Practices

Sustainability is integral to operating a multi-generational family farm, says Brad Greenway, a pork producer in Mitchell, S.D. For the past year, he has spoken across the U.S. as the 2016 America’s Pig Farmer of the Year, a designation the National Pork Board awards annually. “I’m very proud of the changes we’ve made and the reasons why,” says Greenway, referencing ongoing upgrades to boost animal comfort and feed efficiency, during a panel discussion at the 2017 Sustainable Agriculture Summit in Kansas City, Mo. “We’re always looking for ways to improve.” Greenway spoke about the pork industry’s ongoing commitment to sustainable production practices. Panelists who joined him in the conversation were Sara Crawford, ‎assistant vice president of social responsibility for the National Pork Board; Dan Wetherell, environmental health safety manager for JBS Live Pork; and Dr. Megan Schnur, a veterinarian with Carthage Veterinary Service in west-central Illinois. Consumer concerns over animal welfare and antibiotics are top of mind for professionals in the pork industry, so efforts to educate the public about animal agriculture remain a focus. Those efforts, along with use of the latest scientific research and tools, will help promote greater animal well-being and better biosecurity to limit the spread of disease and a smaller environmental footprint. “We are constantly training employees about how to use the correct needles and provide the correct dose of medicine,” Schnur says. New resources such as probiotics help improve gut health of nursery pigs, and judicious use of antibiotics ensures there are no negative side effects for the environment or human health, she adds. Manure applications also frequently raise red flags on consumers’ radar because of health concerns and smell. But Wetherell notes it’s also a sustainable practice that has benefits for the environment. “It’s really a natural fertilizer,” Wetherell says. “Farmers are true recyclers.” Greenway notes precision application of manure can have immense benefits for his corn, soybeans, wheat and alfalfa. This year’s corn and soybeans are especially notable. “It was a very dry year, but we had the best crops in my life with 200-plus-bushel corn,” he says. The panelists urged food companies, food retailers and other stakeholders along the supply chain to support production practices that are in the best interest of animals and consumers. Those practices should also be economically viable. Greenway owns a sow farm with 14 other producers in his region of South Dakota, and to change to group sow housing, the business would need to modify its 4,000-sow barn by increasing its size by one-third or reducing its livestock head count by one-third. In addition to the added cost, they would need to consider animals injuring one another or their employees. “It is very important to consider ‘all these ramifications before production changes are forced onto farmers,” he says. Looking ahead, the industry could benefit from a calculator that allows producers to measure the full scope of their environmental footprint. A good starting point is the National Pork Board’s Pig Production Environmental Footprint Calculator developed by researchers at the University of Arkansas, Wetherell says.
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Wheat Crop in Black Sea Region off to Strong Start

Favorable weather expected at the start of the Russian winter will help planted wheat, according to Commodity Weather Group. Currently, no major cold snaps are seen in southern Russia and Ukraine, while snow cover is projected to be adequate, insulating plants against potential damage from any frosts, said David Streit, a forecaster at the group. “We have a fairly snowy winter for the region, which should help to provide protection as we go deeper into the winter,” he said by email. “Winterkill risks are limited for the beginning of the winter.” Average monthly temperatures in December are expected to be normal in southern areas and 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in some central regions, the government’s weather center said on its website. Rain and snow are also predicted to be near normal in most of the areas where winter-wheat crops are now shifting to dormancy. Most Russian winter wheat is planted from mid-August through mid-October, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Ideal weather conditions helped Russia reach a record harvest this year and indications of good weather for next year may see the country retain its position as top wheat exporter. Plantings for next year’s harvest are seen near a record high, with crop conditions mostly better than a year ago, according to estimates by the Institute for Agriculture Market Studies, or IKAR. Moscow-based consultant SovEcon also expects Russia to collect its second-largest wheat crop of 76.7 million metric tons, assuming that weather is similar to recent years.
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Scrapping NAFTA Bad for Agriculture

Deliberations on the nearly 24 year-old free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico and the U.S. have gotten more contentious and ending the deal could spell trouble for agriculture domestically. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was discussed during a panel conversation hosted by the World Trade Center - Kansas City and the Kansas City Chamber of Commerce. NAFTA 2.0 has been through several different negotiation meetings since the Trump administration went into office. The three way trade deal represents more than $1 trillion a year exchanged between the partner countries. The health in that trade relationship is important, says Paul Lalonde, partner and trade specialist with the law firm Dentons. Lalonde is based in Toronto, Canada and he says the dialogue is changing with the U.S.' s neighbor to the north. " The possibility of the end of NAFTA is receiving more attention," Lalonde says. " We' re seeing a lot more serious study going on about ending NAFTA from analysts, foreign exchange traders, financial institutions and so on." The studies have indicated that ending NAFTA would have downward pressure on the growth prospects of Canada and it would impact the strength of the dollar. These impacts might not be as hash as the global recession in 2008 or the collapses in oil prices, but it would take time to settle the economy. The U.S. could likely see similar market shocks. " If NAFTA does die the only winners will be our off-shore competitors, particularly the European Union, China, Japan and countries with large economies in transition like Brazil," Lalonde says. Mexico has been thought to be one of the biggest winners from NAFTA, particularly by the Trump administration. Alfonso Navarro-Bernachi, head consul for the Consulate of Mexico in Kansas City, points out the trade deficit amount between the U.S. and Mexico isn' t that large when looking at China. From January to September 2017 the U.S. has a trade deficit of $277.3 billion with China, compared to $53.1 billion with Mexico according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. currently has a $12.4 billion deficit with Canada. Thus far for the year the U.S. is at a trade deficit of $586.5 billion when looking at all trade partners internationally. China accounts for 46.7% of the trade deficit, while Mexico is at 9% and Canada is only 2%. Navarro-Bernachi adds that while the entire U.S. has a trade deficit with Mexico there are states who trade a large amount of agriculture goods to his country and actually have surpluses. " For instance in the case of Mexico and Kansas, Mexico has a trade deficit with Kansas." The story is similar for Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Virginia and Washington which all have an agriculture commodity ranking in the top 10 exported items and have a trade surplus to Mexico. Trying to solve trade deficit issue is something Raj Bhala, Associate Dean for International and Comparative Law at the University of Kansas and partner with Dentons, believes will only stall negotiations. The U.S. had already spent eight years in Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations with Canada and Mexico. If the U.S. had not backed out of TPP much of the updates to NAFTA around ecommerce and regulations could have been handled with that agreement. Bhala says agriculture and other industries dependent on trade should pay attention to what Canada and Mexico do with other free trade agreements. Both countries remained in TPP and it is near finalization, opening up major free trade markets in Asia for Canada and Mexico. "They (Canada and Mexico) are increasingly looking east and west, instead of north and south," Bhala says. There is the potential that Canada and Mexico just use TPP as a means to do their own NAFTA updates, potentially leaving the U.S. out of the mix should the Trump administration decide to walk away from NAFTA.
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Will China's Appetite for Cheese Boost Milk Prices?

Last month Chinese officials announced they were lowing import tariffs on certain types of cheese. That’s great news for the dairy markets and will likely lead to an increase in cheese exports. However, while it will help, China’s demand for cheese is not likely going to be enough to compensate for the massive supply of milk and dairy products in the U.S. ”So [these lower tariffs are] a great news story,” Blohm explains. “Right now, the reality is that we have a surplus of cheese. Cheese prices as of late have been lower and that’s what’s been pulling that milk price down into the low $15 area with some of the deferred contracts already seeing $14.” That said, the market is flooded in milk and dairy products she says. While every bit of extra demand will help the fundamental situation, she doesn’t see an increasing appetite for cheese in China as a silver bullet. “I don’t know how much of an increase it’s going to do because of course a lot of that goes with currency fluctuations as well,” she says. “And we have competition from Oceana. I would say though, that it’s going to hopefully see a small increase in the exports. The exports in general need all the help they can get.” According to Blohm milk prices could bounce another 50 cents in the near term but then they will do some sideways trading into the first quarter of 2018 because of strong milk production.
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Biodiesel Industry: "This EPA is not Interested in Our Growth"

Reactions across agriculture were mixed to the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) blending targets for renewable fuels for 2018 and 2019, setting the total renewable fuel volume at 19.29 billion gallons. The 15 billion gallon target for convention biofuel, including corn-based ethanol, won mild praise from Bob Dinneen, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association. "We're generally pleased, we think that the EPA has kept the RFS (Renewable Fuels Standard) largely on track," Dineen told AgriTalk Radio host Mike Adams. But he said EPA could have been more robust with their advanced biofuels numbers." He said the industry should get more credit for cellulosic production added to conventional corn ethanol plants and for corn oil use in biodiesel. On the biodiesel side of the ledger, there was disappointment in the flat 2.1 billion gallon target. "This is a two to four year signal that this EPA is not interested in our growth," Doug Whitehead, chief operating officer of the National Biodiesel Board said on AgriTalk. "You know, 2.3 or 2.4 (billion gallon target) would have launched steel into the ground and would have helped farmers decide what their plant crop rotation would have been for next year. I'm thankful for not getting a cut, but this is very disappointing." Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) who has been at the center of the fight over the RFS target levels said in a statement,"The EPA's announced renewable volume obligations fall short of the full potential of the U.S. biofuels industry. That is disappointing, particularly the lack of increase for biodiesel levels and the cut in cellulosic level requirements. Increases in the volume requirements are justified and would be good public policy. Congress intended for the RFS to drive growth in biofuels across all categories. Contrary to that goal, this final rule does little to encourage investment and growth in advanced biofuels."
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