Author - fjfnewswp232423423434
10Feb

China's Changing Pork Needs: It's Time to Differentiate

We enter 2020 with a host of unusual and unpredictable events. In other words, there is huge opportunity for those who can read the signs of the times. For example, the $717-million trade deal between JBS SA in Brazil and China’s WH Group (parent company of Smithfield Foods in the U.S.) should open tens of thousands of direct marketing opportunities in WH’s established points of sale in China. It will move pork as well as beef and chicken across China. The Chinese will likely reduce their total per capita consumption of pork substantially for the long term, if not permanently. That will require a massive permanent reduction in backyard farms, movement restrictions on live pigs (already implemented) and a reshaping of demand around the dietary preferences of the younger Chinese consumer. The focus is inevitably shifting toward safe, higher value cuts along with smaller portions and a shift toward poultry and seafood. It will also require fully integrated production and marketing chains to handle the variety of risks going forward. The emergence and rapid spread of the coronavirus in China is already closing whole cities and resulted in the cancellation of one of the largest celebrations of the Lunar New Year and perhaps the one most associated with pork consumption. In a typical year, families travel extensively during the Lunar New Year to share in celebrations. Curtailing movement within and among large cities both in China and internationally coupled with the closure of borders with nearby countries is substantially damaging retail commerce, travel and tourism incomes and is making wholesale movement of goods difficult. Chinese pig prices, after a decline in late 2019, have turned sharply higher reflecting the current shortages related to African swine fever. The marketing and movement chaos is preventing commerce distribution. Cities of many million people have been given orders for folks to remain indoors to stop the spread of the coronavirus. In the meantime, the U.S. industry is choking on live hog supply with prices hovering at breakeven or less for most producers. Prospects for profits keep moving back like a mirage to a thirsty traveler. Year-over-year supply of live hogs coming to market is temporarily up close to +6% and live weights were reported at an average 290 lb. This will have to change. To complicate matters for producers, the latest report shows pork in cold storage continuing to rise against the typical seasonal pattern late in 2020 with hams, loins and bellies increasing. The report lags real time substantially, though. The building of hams after Thanksgiving and before the Easter surge suggests fewer shipments to Mexico. Mexico has its first truly modern, large-scale, integrated pork chain, which will aim at higher value markets domestically and compete for Asian export opportunities. This trend will eventually become much more common as the old broker/buyer systems of live pig sales in Mexico begins to be displaced. It is difficult to imagine a future not substantially dominated by integrated chains. This does not mean they have to be mega-chains as these tend to have their own unique risks during times of upheaval. There has really never been a better moment for small- to medium-sized specialty pork chains. I keep imagining what would happen if a group of U.S. pork producers followed the strategy of the plant-based meat substitutes. Attract venture capital, hire a couple of food scientists and a chef or two (all outside the meat industry) and set up a farrow-to-retail chain focused on delivering incredible flavor, texture, juiciness, safety, nutrition and sustainability. The U.S. pork chain and its producers are without doubt the most efficient, safe and cost-effective meat production chain in the world. However, there is a huge opportunity for differentiation at this moment in our history.
By Grains, Livestock
Read more...
07Feb

How Long Does African Swine Fever Live in Feed?

The science on viral transmission through feed and feedstuffs is relatively young, but research in the past year has yielded some interesting and useful information. New research improves upon current understanding of how the deadly African swine fever (ASF) virus survives in feed. Research shows it lasts much longer than scientists originally thought. Earlier studies evaluated the half-life of Senecavirus A (SVA). The half-life is the amount of time that it takes for half of a virus that may be contaminating feed or a feed ingredient to die off naturally. “We wanted to get information as quickly as we could and make it as best as possible so we chose Senecavirus A because it's not a regulatory virus and you don't need a high biosecurity lab to do the work,” explains Paul Sundberg, DVM, executive director of the Swine Health Information Center (SHIC). SVA is in the same family that’s closely related to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), he explains. Because FMD is very resistant and lives a long time in the environment, researchers thought SVA would be similar and likely be one of the hardier viruses that could be tested quickly. “The bottom line is that we thought the initial research with SVA would be good,” Sundberg says. “But we tested it and learned that ASF lasts even longer than SVA, so we want people to know and be able to factor this information into their decision process. If our focus is on ASF right now (and that’s appropriate), we need to make sure people are aware of the research that directly works with ASF.”   Survivability of ASF in feed The initial research providing the best understanding of viral survivability in feedstuffs and details for mitigating risk to domestic herds via holding times, based on using SVA in the model, was funded by SHIC and the Institute for Feed Education and Research, the public charity of the American Feed Industry Association, a SHIC release said. The initial estimations, calculated in October 2018 then updated in May 2019, now reflect new information from recent work done on African swine fever (ASF) half-life by Megan Niederwerder, assistant professor of diagnostic medicine and pathobiology in the College of Veterinary Medicine, and her team at Kansas State University. Based on the conditions of transoceanic shipment needed to import into the U.S., the following table displays the mean holding times calculated to provide 99.99% ASF degradation at 54 degrees F (average).
By Livestock
Read more...
07Feb

U.S. Pork Exports Hit Record Levels in 2019

U.S. pork exports posted new volume and value records in 2019, reaching nearly $7 billion, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), a release from the federation says. Pork exports were up 34% year-over-year, reaching 282,145 metric tons (mt) in December, passing the previous record set in November 2019 by 9%. Export value was $760 million, which is up 44% from a year ago, and breaking the previous record, also set in November 2019, by 7% the release says. These numbers pushed 2019 exports to 10% higher than the previous year in volume (2.67 million mt) and 9% higher in value ($6.95 billion), breaking previous records for both. The previous records were 2.45 million mt in 2017, and $6.65 billion in 2014. Pork export value per head slaughtered was $66.70 in December, nearly one-third higher than a year ago and the highest monthly average since 2014. For 2019, per-head value averaged $53.51, up 4% year-over-year, the release says. The percentage of pork production exported also set new records in December, as exports accounted for 32.1% of total pork production and 29.3% for muscle cuts only, up substantially from a year ago (26.1% and 23.6%, respectively). In 2019, exports accounted for 26.9% of total pork production, up from 25.7% and the highest since 2012. For muscle cuts only, the ratio was 23.6%, up from 22.5% in 2018.
By Livestock
Read more...
04Feb

Early Stress Boosts Soybean Yield

Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie has recorded yield increases of 2 bu. to 5 bu. per acre from rolling soybeans and up to 5 bu. per acre from herbicides. Those results were with soybeans planted at the normal time. But what happens with early-planted soybeans? Planting soybeans early, so they begin to flower before the summer solstice, can boost yield, but it requires a detailed focus on management. While Ferrie’s studies of man-made stress on early-planted soybeans are ongoing, he’s learning more about how to manage them. With stress, timing is critical. “Charts used by insurance adjusters to evaluate the effect of hail damage illustrate the importance of growth stage,” Ferrie says. “If plants are in vegetative stages V9 to V12, 100% defoliation reduces projected yield by only 10%. But if plants have entered the reproductive stage at V10/R5, the projected yield loss is more than 85%.” Roll Early Before Plants Become Too Brittle “Just as with normal planting, rolling early-planted soybeans at the V1 to V2 stage gives the best response,” Ferrie says. “In our 2018 study, early-planted soybeans rolled at the V1 to V2 stage yielded 83 bu. per acre. An unrolled check plot yielded only 79 bu. per acre.” In the same study, rolling too late, in the V2 to V3 stage, reduced yield from 81.9 bu. per acre to 79.5 bu. Even though they rolled in the afternoon, when warmer temperatures should have made the plants less brittle, they had to stop because so many plants were breaking off. It’s OK to roll early-planted soybeans for rocks, you might see a yield increase from branching, Ferrie says. ”But if you usually roll normal-planted soybeans 10 days after emergence, your early- planted soybeans might not be at the same growth stage, or even emerged, because of cooler soil conditions,” he adds. ”Base rolling on the stage of the plant. You might also need to roll later in the day when the temperature is warmer.” Herbicide Application Takes Planning Keep the following in mind when using herbicides to stress soybeans: Understand label restrictions and know your weeds. Some herbicides must be applied a certain number of days after planting; some are restricted based on weed size and soybean growth stage. Most post-emergence products must be applied before weeds get too big. “You must understand the weeds you are trying to control,” Ferrie says. “Do they emerge early or later as the ground warms up? Apply the proper rate for the size of weed.” Because of resistance, you might have to apply a combination of herbicides, some of which can burn plants. “This makes it imperative to understand the stage of soybean growth,” Ferrie says. “Most herbicide labels recommend not burning plants after R1. The same stress that increases branching, especially of lower nodes, can cause flower, pod and bean abortion. Make sure weeds are enough of a problem to justify some yield loss.” Don’t confuse soybean plant height and growth stage. “At knee-high, a plant can be V10 or V10/R2,” Ferrie says. “This is even more important with early planting because the plants flower earlier. With normal planting, plants could be at V10, and a diphenyl ether herbicide could increase branching and boost yield. But with early planting, the plants could be at V10/R2, and burning will abort flowers and pods.” Ferrie’s studies show why growth stage is so important, and how the situation changes with early planting. In 2018, he sprayed plants that were flowering before the solstice (at the V7/R2, or full flower, stage) with a full rate of diphenyl ether. Those soybeans yielded 70.9 bu. per acre, while an unsprayed check yielded 79.1. In 2019, Ferrie sprayed a herbicide on two soybean plots that were planted in May and flowered after the solstice. A 3.2-maturity variety, burned at the V9 to early R1 stage, made 78 bu. per acre compared with 74 bu. in an unsprayed check. A 4.1-maturity variety, sprayed at V9, yielded 78 bu. per acre, versus 73.5 bu. where it was not sprayed. From the road, an early-planted soybean might look like it’s ready to spray, based on what you are used to seeing with normal planting, Ferrie says. But closer examination might reveal it’s already as far along as R3. Spraying will reduce yield. With early planting, you can no longer apply a herbicide based on days after planting. “You must scout to determine soybean growth stage and weed height,” Ferrie says. One-Two Punch To Yield Take natural stress into account. “Although burning can stimulate branching and yield, if you burn drought-stressed soybeans, the combination might work against you,” Ferrie says. “Stress in the vegetative stages tends to slow maturity, but stress in the reproductive stages speeds maturity. If early-planted soybeans in the reproductive stage are under drought stress, burning could double the potential for yield loss while speeding maturity of the plant. Once a plant reaches R5, it will stop growing, and you might get stunted plants.”
By Grains
Read more...
20Dec

USMCA Clears House

With overwhelming bipartisan support, the House of Representatives passed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement with a vote of 385-41, setting up a vote in the Senate early next year. President Trump is expected to sign the agreement after the Senate approves it. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said in a statement that President Trump delivered on his promise to replace NAFTA and said USMCA is “huge success” for America’s farmers and ranchers. “This agreement will unleash the bounty of America’s agricultural harvest to two of our largest trading partners in the world and it is critical to the success of rural America,” Perdue said in a statement. Several fresh produce industry leaders also celebrated the vote on USMCA. “With today’s strong vote by the House, we encourage the Senate to move forward with consideration of USMCA,” Tom Stenzel, United Fresh Produce Association president and CEO, said in a news release. “For the fresh produce industry, this is a welcomed achievement as we continue to meet the demands from consumers for increased availability of healthy fresh fruits and vegetables. Finally, we believe this new trade agreement will strengthen our partnership between the three countries and provide essential cooperation in the fresh fruit and vegetable industry.” Jim Bair, president and CEO of the U.S. Apple Association, said in a statement that USMCA adds certainty to apple export efforts. “Growing apples is a risky business and locking in our largest markets adds certainty for the long haul,” Bair said in a statement. “It lets U.S. growers get back to doing what they do best – producing superior quality apples in a volume and range of varieties not available anywhere else.” Since NAFTA became effective in 1994, Bair said that apple exports to Mexico have quadrupled and those to Canada have doubled. A statement from the Produce Marketing Association said the revised NAFTA maintains zero tariffs for the trading of fruits and vegetables and modernizes border protocols, labor provisions and intellectual property rights. “This agreement is consistent with PMA’s over-arching goals of free and fair trade and we are pleased with this major step forward,” Richard Owen, vice president of global membership and engagement for the PMA, said in the statement. “Over the past 25 years, NAFTA helped increase year-round availability of fresh fruits and vegetables and in turn, increased consumption by U.S. consumers – an important step towards building a healthier world.” Under NAFTA, Owen said trilateral agricultural trade between the U.S., Canada and Mexico has grown from $16.7 billion in 1993 to $82 billion in 2013. U.S. imports of fresh produce from Mexico and Canada account for about half of all U.S. produce imports, Owen said in the statement. Mexico has already ratified USMCA and Canada’s Parliament likely won’t introduce legislation to ratify the agreement until after convening on Jan. 27, Owen said in the statement. Not everyone in the industry supported the deal, however. “It is deeply disappointing that seasonal protections were not included in this USMCA implementing legislation,” Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nicole “Nikki” Fried said in a statement. “For nearly a year, I have called repeatedly for effective, timely relief from unfair trade practices for America’s seasonal produce growers in the USMCA. Florida remains committed to continuing our fight through all available channels to protect our vital seasonal produce industry, and to put Florida’s and America’s farmers first.” Fried said that USMCA could cost Florida farmers up to 8,000 lost jobs and $400 million in lost revenue. Tweaking the deal Rep. Jimmy Panetta, D-Calif, said USMCA was improved by Democrats. “When the administration first presented the USMCA to Congress earlier this year, we found it unacceptable due to the lack of serious labor and environmental standards and functioning enforcement mechanisms, as well as pharmaceuticals provisions that threatened to keep prescription drug prices high for consumers,” he said in a news release. “However, the Democratic Majority in Congress pushed back on the Administration and worked diligently with our U.S. Trade Representative, Ambassador Robert Lighthizer, to greatly improve this deal. Panetta said Democrats negotiated makes several improvements over NAFTA and the 2018 USMCA, including introducing new rules of evidence for enforcement efforts. He said the agreement now creates new mechanisms to monitor labor rule compliance in Mexico and to enforce the commitment that parties trade only in goods that comply with the agreement’s rules on workers.
By Grains
Read more...
16Dec

ASF: Will It Be Coming to a Farm Near You?

As much as the US pork industry hopes African swine fever (ASF) won’t enter the country, the challenge is formidable. An enormous number of food products are confiscated every day at the border, and the number of people traveling to the US from infected countries continues to grow. Both scenarios create a constant threat, but the enduring goal is to keep the virus out of US pork operations. “It’s each country’s responsibility to control ASF,” says Juan LuBroth, DVM, Chief Veterinary Officer for the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). “We [FAO] can make suggestions, but we are more the carrot than the stick,” he told attendees of the 2019 U.S. Animal Health Association annual meeting this fall. Headquartered in Rome, the FAO’s primary focus is on people’s livelihoods, the elimination of hunger, food security, sustainable agriculture and food production. Heavily embedded in those priorities is human and animal disease control. LuBroth has worked extensively on ASF in China and is considered an authority on the virus. He says each country is different, noting it’s important to understand the methods of pork production in each region. “Country-by-country needs have to be considered,” he says. “A restructuring of the swine sector is likely to occur in China.” Is the U.S. prepared? The FAO’s role is primarily in training and advising, and more so in low- to middle income countries. But when LuBroth was asked whether or not he believed the US pork industry was prepared to deal with ASF, he said, “The US and Canada have a history of creating awareness of what diseases might be coming into a country.” Understanding, awareness and education are critical components of a disease control program. A coordinated effort on the local, state, regional and federal levels will help prepare producers for ASF, should it be identified in a US pork operation. “There is always room for improvement, but we have learned some important lessons,” LuBroth says. Full involvement While the US pork industry may be prepared, LuBroth says a whole-government approach is needed, and that may be a potential weakness. “The standing group of experts we have in Europe is very focused on the need for a whole-government approach,” he says.” A program needs to include the private sector and the wildlife sector to be effective. “You’re only as healthy as your neighbor is,” Lubroth adds. Outreach to local communities for small producers is key, and biosecurity has never been more important. An appropriate reporting mechanism is also vital, LuBroth says. “In the case of the hand-held PCR, the person who uses it is trained,” he says. (See the first article in this series, “The Global Threat of ASF.”) The US has robust university, state and federal networks to work on tools necessary for foreign animal disease control, where before it was exclusively at Plum Island, LuBroth says. Tests need to be inexpensive and accurate or they won’t be used. Is it realistic to think that ASF can be eradicated in China before there’s an effective vaccine? LuBroth says vaccines are not a silver bullet. A good vaccine would be a useful tool, but to rely entirely on the promise of a vaccine is ill-advised. The progressive pathway for risk management of a foreign animal disease like ASF requires a coordinated effort with government, regulatory officials on every level, university researchers, the private sector and pork groups in a step-wise approach, LuBroth says. The USAHA covers topics ranging from zoonotic diseases, to regulations, to specific diseases in cattle, horses, sheep, cervids, poultry and pigs, and much more. Leaders from government, industry and academia work alongside producers to find solutions to health issues that can help animal agriculture thrive.
By Grains, Livestock
Read more...
05Dec

100 Million Acres of Corn in 2020?

A simple equation of the 2019 planted corn acres (90 million) and the total corn prevent plant acres (11.4 million) tops more than 100 million acres. With all the uncertainties around trade, fall fieldwork, African swine fever and farm finances, could farmers lean toward that huge number in 2020? Our stable of market analysts weigh in.

“I don’t think we’re going to see 100 million acres of corn, but we certainly are going to see more after so many acres went to prevent plant this year. Farmers are probably going to favor corn versus beans again in 2020. The bigger thing to think about is we still have a lot of the corn crop sitting in the field. Farmers dealt with a lot of mud getting it in and getting it out. A lot of fields that went to prevent plant are full of weeds. They’re going to have a lot of cleanup before they can start laying down fertilizer and putting seeds in the field," says Erin FitzPatrick Grain & Oilseed, Analyst at Rabo AgriFinance.

  “We all need to remember liquidity ratios continue to deteriorate for a lot of producers and, quite frankly, it’s not cheap to put corn in the ground. If the price ratio is 2.2:1, then yeah, you’re going to plant a heck of a lot of corn. If the price ratio goes above 2.4 or 2.5, I think with the amount of cash people have in their pocket, there are still going to be a lot of soybeans planted. If you don’t want to see 100 million acres of corn, you’ve got to root for a bean rally. It’s expensive to put corn in the ground.” - Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net   “We could plant 100 million acres of corn next year, but I do not expect it at this point. I think we’re probably looking at bringing those prevent plant acres back and adding to both corn and soybeans in 2020. The current price relationship would suggest both of them equally gaining, which would pull corn acres up to around 95 million. Soybeans could certainly jump back toward the mid to upper 80s. There’s a lot of unknowns yet and the biggest is the China trade deal. If in fact we would get corn, ethanol and DDGs in a trade deal, then suddenly we would realize the world corn balance sheet is tighter than what the market is currently trading. It just needs that type of incentive to see a spark.” - Arlan Suderman, INTL FC Stone
By Grains, Weather
Read more...
02Dec

Market Pop from South American Weather Not Likely

Harvest 2019 may be far from over for some farmers in the upper Midwest, yet as the calendar flips to 2020, the market’s focus will shift to South America. If farmers are hoping for a market run fueled by imperfect weather in South America, some meteorologists say that may not be in the cards this winter. “The weather right now in South America is turning around,” says Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. “It looks very normal to me for both Brazil and Argentina…. The only place I see a problem in South America is going to be northeastern Brazil; that area’s not going to get a lot of moisture. That's about 10% of the soybean crop, and that area up there is going to stay fairly dry.” He says years like 2018 produced dryness in South America, which in turn, caused a weather scare to boost commodity prices. At this point, Lerner just doesn’t see a similar scenario panning out. “If we're looking for market support because of a failing crop in South America, this isn't going to be the year for that,” says Lerner. Now, the second-season corn crop down in Brazil will possibly have some issues, but that's all predicated on how quickly the rainy season ends in March and April and if we get an extended rainy season, planting late is not going to be an issue. We really won't be able to answer that part of the equation for a few months.” As Lerner thinks South America could be poised for a good production year, other meteorologists are also paying attention. USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says without a major weather event to expect status quo. “That's the way it appears,” says Rippey. “Without El Nino or La Nina to talk about for South America, you don't really have a good, strong forecast signal. Those are the early indications, as the equivalent in the southern hemisphere for December 1 would be June 1, so it's fairly early in the growing season. The only significant dryness we've seen in the soybean belt has been in the interior, northeastern part of Brazil. Most other areas have had ample rainfall.” Rippey says temperatures have been creeping on the high side in areas but not enough to severely impact production at this point. “So far, early in the season, things are moving along pretty well and no signs of any alarm bells in South America,” says Rippey.
By Grains, Weather
Read more...
07Nov

Plants are Taking Root in the Dairy Case

If you’re wondering why domestic demand for U.S. fluid milk is down, look no further than your grocer’s dairy case. There, you’ll surely find traditional dairy products. But increasingly, the real thing is being crowded on the shelves by plant-based alternatives. What was once a near-sacred haven for real milk, butter, yogurt, ice cream and cheese has become a cornucopia of alternatives, with those same products mimicked by new, plant-based offerings manufactured from soybeans, almonds, coconuts, oats and peas. “Growing Roots in the Dairy Aisle: The Rise of Plant-based Alternatives,” is a highly comprehensive report released recently by Blimling and Associates, a Madison, Wis.-based dairy brokerage and economic consulting firm. The report compiled data from a wide range of sources, most of which points to the same conclusion: real dairy products face a steep climb to protect market share and grocer shelf space, in the wake of an unprecedented tide of changing consumer preferences that favor plant-based alternatives.
By Dairy, Grains
Read more...
07Nov

Win-Win Partnership Between Farmer and Startup

Better, faster and stronger. Testing new technology and innovation on farms, rather than in labs or controlled trials, serves as the ultimate measuring tape. When Tennessee producer Grant Norwood partnered with GroGuru, a startup with unique irrigation management technology enabling permanent soil sensor installation below till depth, the result was a big win for both farmer and company. Steered by AgLaunch, an ag tech-focused business acceleration program that connects growers and entrepreneurs, the Norwood-GroGuru collaboration serves as a blueprint for farmer-startup efforts. Cutting-Edge Access Across 3,000 no-till acres in northeast Tennessee’s Henry County, Norwood grows corn, soybeans and winter wheat, with roughly one-third of his acreage watered by pivots and under the eye of GroGuru’s strategic irrigation management technology. In 2018 and 2019, as the company’s first row-crop farmer-partner, Norwood tested GroGuru innovation. “By starting early, I got to be a big voice and help shape the technology to get the best product,” he says. “GroGuru delivers useful information about what is around the root zone — a complete look at what’s underground, and I can plant over the permanent ground sensors.” Candid Feedback Patrick Henry, CEO of GroGuru, says farmer-partners are invaluable. “We got candid feedback from Grant that allowed us to improve. There is no substitute for being in the field and working while farmers deal with day-to-day problems. You can’t find that dynamic in a lab or in field trials that don’t directly involve our end-customer — the farmer.” Norwood emphasizes the benefits for all growers: “The information I provided helped GroGuru with a better product and faster pace. Ultimately, this helps farmers access useful technology at the beginning of a startup. The experience produced a great working relationship, and I’m now involved in other AgLaunch projects.”
By Grains
Read more...